Former Rays: Caveat Emptor

For the third time in four games, the Braves won today despite B.J. Upton.  The $75.25 million center fielder went 0 for 4, as he did in the first two games of the young season.  Although Bossman’s hit on Wednesday ensured that he will not go 0 for 2014, that is the lone bright spot for the man who received the largest free agent contract in the history of baseball’s longest continuously operating franchise.

I’m not yet ready to give up on Upton.  Were I more convinced that Jordan Schafer is an everyday player, I might feel differently.  But I am not, and so I don’t.  Nonetheless, I have significant doubts as to whether, at the end of the 2017 season, when the Braves dim the lights of the new Cobb County stadium for the last time and move the Upton contract off the books, the organization will consider the money in Upton’s pockets $75.25 million well-spent.

 I had those same doubts, though, back on November 29, 2012, when the Braves announced the deal.  I cannot claim that I saw this debacle coming.  But I had concerns about forking over piles of money to the suddenly former Tampa Bay outfielder.  Some of those doubts had to do with Upton’s inconsistent performance.  Some had to with his inability to hit over .250 since 2008.  Some had to do with his rising strikeout numbers.  But perhaps the biggest reason that I was not so sure the Braves should be jumping head first into the Upton business—Andrew Friedman had just declined to do so.

Since their 2008 World Series run, the Rays have repeatedly cried poverty as an excuse to part with established players.  They have claimed to be trying to replicate the business model of the Oakland Athletics—develop young players, ride those players to success until it comes time to pay them, let them walk, and start the process all over again.   There is a significant difference, though, between Oakland and Tampa Bay.  While it is virtually guaranteed that a good young player will one day leave Oakland, the same is not necessarily true in Tampa Bay.  The Rays may not have enough money to lock up all of their young players, but they have enough to lock up a select few—see the recent Chris Archer extension, or the Longoria extension of a few years ago.  And this fact should cause the rest of baseball to act with caution when considering throwing money at a player that Tampa Bay just could not afford to hold on to.

B.J. Upton is not the only former Ray who has struggled after pricing himself out of the Trop.  The list of Rays who left for ostensibly budgetary reasons, either via trade or free agency, during the Friedman era includes underachievers like Carlos Pena and Scott Kazmir.  Carl Crawford spent a few years on this list as well until finding the fountain of youth last season.  Matt Garza has established himself as a serviceable mid-rotation starter; but he has never lived up to the ace potential that he rode from Tampa Bay to Chicago.  The jury is still out on James Shields, although his WHIP was up last year, his first in Kansas City, and his strikeout total was down.  This list, headlined by the elder Mr. Upton, should indicate one thing—any major league team considering investing in a player Tampa Bay has decided not to retain should pause before doing so.
Did Andrew Friedman know something about Upton that Frank Wren did not?  If Friedman had had $75.25 million in his pocket during the 2012 offseason, would he have used it to lock-up his centerfielder for the long haul?

Alas.  Maybe Frank Wren has learned his lesson.  If not, the Rays do have a shortstop that they may have to say goodbye to at the end of the season, and the Braves might be in need of infield depth—particularly if Uggla continues to falter, and C. Johnson shows that last year was an anomaly.  Could we be in for a return of Yunel?  If B.J. isn’t a case that buyers of former Rays should beware, Yunel certainly will be.