This is the first in a series of previews of the upcoming season. Of course, every blog and news entity is writing one of these pieces right now, but I wanted to add my take on the upcoming season and include some predictions.
Number One Starter: Kris Medlen, RHP
Kris Medlen is the old guard of this rotation. He is the nominal ace, although I believe that Minor and Teheran equaled or surpassed him in 2013. 2012 was Medlen's breakout year, when he strapped on Greg Maddux's Superman cape and was the best pitcher in baseball over the final two months of the season. Medlen came out of the gate slow in 2013, posting ERAs north of 3 and FIPs north of 4 in the first two months of the season. This was due in large part to his impeccable command slipping in the early months. He issued 9 walks (in 30 innings) in March/April and 15 (in 34 innings!) walks in May. To put that in perspective, Medlen issued 23 walks in 138 innings in 2012 and only 15 walks in June through August of 2013. Once the command returned to form, Medlen was his usual dominant self (except for a rough July). Medlen in September 2013 looked a lot like Medlen in September 2012, dominating hitters in virtually every category (including a clean 1.00 ERA) and earning the Game 1 start in the NLDS against the Dodgers. Ultimately a repeat of 2013's total statistics (31 starts, 197 IP, 7.17 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 45% GB rate) seems fairly safe to predict for Medlen. [Update: Medlen left Sunday's game with a "strained right forearm." I'm trying to remain optimistic until we hear more.]
Number Two Starter: Mike Minor, LHP
If Kris Medlen has been imitating Greg Maddux, then Mike Minor is doing a great Tom Glavine impersonation. Minor made his MLB debut way back in 2010 (I'm as shocked as you are that he's been around so long), but 2013 was Minor's breakout party including a dominant first playoff start against the Dodgers. 32 starts and 204 innings pitched cemented Minor as a linchpin in the rotation. Minor's 2013 success can be traced back in large part to reducing his BB/9 to 2.02 (down from 2.81 in 2012). The low walk rate is especially important for Minor since he apparently has an aversion to letting Simba field everything (career 35.5% groundball rate). Fortunately the Uptons and Heyward are pretty elite defensively, and The Ted is certainly not the Launching Pad. Minor hopefully will build on last year's success in 2014 (so long as he's able to come back from the worst offseason surgery ever), keeping the walk rate low and giving the Braves another 200+ innings. In another post, I will discuss why Minor deserves to be the next Brave to receive a long-term extension.
Number Three Starter: Julio Teheran, RHP
Ju-li-oooooooo. There's not too much to write about here. Following years of being a highly ranked prospect, Julio's first season in the rotation was everything that I hoped it would be (30 starts, 185 innings, 8.24 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 3.20 ERA, 3.69 FIP). Julio will be just 23 for the entire 2014 season, prompting the Braves to lock him up through 2020 with an incredibly team-friendly contract. If Julio continues to progress, he will jump Medlen/Minor and solidify himself as the next half-decade.
Number Four Starter: Brandon Beachy, RHP
Beachy has had a rough 4 seasons in Atlanta, plagued with injuries and never making more than 25 starts. Beachy is back for 2014, following an unfortunate trip to the office of Dr. Andrews in 2012 and a brief yet failed comeback attempt last year. Although I'm trying to remain optimistic about 2014, Beachy's brief comeback in 2013 was not what anyone would have hoped. He lost nearly 2 mph off his fastball, home run rate rose, and his ERA jumped. Of course it could be small sample size over only 5 starts, but the lost fastball velocity concerns me. There is no way of knowing what the Braves will get out of Beachy in 2014, but hopefully he returns to his 2011-2012 form and fills out the back of the rotation.
Fifth Starter, Option #1: Alex Wood, LHP
The favorite to win the fifth starter job is former-Georgia Bulldog Alex Wood. The first thing to mention about Wood is that funky delivery. The delivery raised concerns pre-draft that he would ultimately end up a reliever (he had Tommy John surgery in high school), but the Braves saw the immediate MLB-ready talent and have already received a great return on the second round pick. Wood has been a dominant pitcher his entire life (you can see his UGA and professional stats here), and his first trip through the bigs was no different. For this post, I'll focus on Wood the starter from 2013 (his reliever statistics were elite as you would expect): 56 IP, 3.54 ERA, 54 Ks, 22 BBs, .706 OPS against. Two concerns are that his walk rate increased and his groundball rate decreased as a starter, but this all could be small sample size. The biggest concern that others have raised for 2014 is how many innings is Wood capable of throwing and whether he should begin the season as a swingman in the bullpen. Although he threw only 139 innings in 2013, Wood did throw 154 between UGA and Low A Rome in 2012 (note: I recognize that college innings are different than starter innings since college starters throw only once per week). The Braves may economically benefit from starting Wood in the bullpen and may be able to claim that it's also best for the team since Venters won't be ready until May at the earliest, but I think this is should be Alex Wood's job to lose.
(Something else random that I learned while researching this piece is that Wood and Teheran were born only two weeks apart in January 1991.)
Fifth Starter, Option #2: Freddy Garcia, RHP
Freddy Freddy Freddy. Raise your hand if you were angry that the Braves gave Garcia the Game Four start versus the Dodgers in the NLDS. But Garcia was brilliant against the Dodgers as he was all year with the Braves, using that smoke and mirrors approach to baffle National League hitters. I say NL hitters, because American League hitters torched Garcia when he started the year in Baltimore, and Garcia in fact was just signed to provide rotation depth...to Gwinnett. There are reasons to feel confident that Garcia can be a solid pitcher in 2014 (okay maybe not confident but not terrified if he has to start). First, Garcia transformed himself into a nimbler (just 41% of his pitches "in the zone" with the Braves) and a groundball ace. A career groundball rate of 42%, Garcia jumped to 51% as a Brave. Most likely this is small sample size, but Garcia went from a 5-pitch pitcher to essentially a 3-pitch pitcher as a Brave, significantly increasing his usage of his slider while scrapping the curve and splitter. As we all know, groundballs in Atlanta turn into outs so, while I don't want to see Garcia receive a lot of starts this year, I think the Braves could certainly do worse. Garcia is signed to a minor league deal, so the Braves are not on the hook if Garcia fails to recreate the magic.
Fifth Starter, Option #3: Gavin Floyd, RHP
Floyd is a head scratcher for me. Floyd has been an above-average pitcher in his career, but I'm not convinced. He is one of those pitchers who always has a solid WAR because of strong FIP numbers that are not necessarily supported by ERAs. I will note that the projection systems that Fangraphs uses all project ERAs and FIPs under 4, which would certainly make the $4 million the Braves invested in Floyd to be worthwhile. But he is coming off of TJ surgery and won't be available until sometime in May at the earliest. Floyd gets a lot of groundballs for his career, so maybe I should be more optimistic. I think the money spent on Floyd would have been better allocated to the bench (Kelly Johnson and Raffy Furcal immediately come to mind, but there are numerous 2014 free agents who could have made an impact in Atlanta), and I honestly just don't know what to expect from Floyd.
Fifth Starter, Option #4: David Hale, RHP
David Hale is most likely ticketed for Gwinnett. He was impressive in his brief 2013 debut: 11 innings, 14 Ks, 1 BB, 1 earned run. Hale relied primarily on his 91 mph fastball (71%!) with a change and a slider as secondary pitches. He's "old" for this rotation, but the former Princeton (and The Walker School in Marietta) star has a young arm as he was only a reliever up until midseason 2011. Baseball America ranked Hale the 7th best prospect in the system. Hale could wind up in the bullpen to start the season, but I would prefer letting Hale start down at Gwinnett unless he'll be used early and often in the big league pen.
Other Starter Options (I'm sure I'll write about these minor leaguers in more detail as the season progresses.)
J.R. Graham, RHP
Cody Martin, RHP
Ian Thomas, LHP
Jason Hursh, RHP
Wes Parson, RHP
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