Part four of my season preview series.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
First Base - Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman had a breakout season in 2013 (.319/.396/.501) and was handsomely rewarded for it. Or that's the storyline. It wasn't really a breakout season though. It was basically the same season that he posted in 2012. The only thing that changed was BABIP. This is actually a great thing and probably why the Braves felt comfortable locking up Captain Hugs forever. In 2014, Freddie won't hit .319, he probably won't get on base 40% of the time, but he still will be the Braves' best offensive weapon and will begin to earn his massive deal. [Note: this is probably my favorite thing that happened this off season.]
Second Base - Dan Uggla
Oh Papa Uggs. I want you to be good. I really do. By all accounts you are a great clubhouse guy, work really hard, and help other players even though you're struggling. Remember in July-August 2011 when you were basically the best hitter in baseball? Those were fun times. Unfortunately those two months have been the only positive months in the 3 seasons that Uggla has been a Brave. Really all you need to know is that Uggla makes $13,000,000 per year but was left off the 2013 NLDS roster.
Power has decreased. His already-terrible K rate has somehow increased to Adam Dunn levels. Line drives have decreased. There's no stat for "weak ass grounders to short," but I'm sure those have increased. At least he draws a lot of walks and gets on base (making him a bigger threat on offense than Gattis - but yes Gattis can progress since he's just a sophomore). Two more years left on Uggla's massive deal means that the 2014 starting lineup will likely include Papa Uggs striking out three times and drawing a walk. But, just like 2013, if the Braves make the playoffs I expect someone else to be starting at second base.
When the Braves traded for Uggla back in 2011, I told Jonathan that I loved the trade (giving up Infante and Dunn), but only if the Braves would let Uggla play for one year, offer him arbitration, take the draft pick, and let him walk. They didn't. And in 2014 and in 2015, the Braves are still stuck with that bad decision.
Shortstop - Andrelton Simmons
I love Andrelton Simmons. He is the best defensive player I have ever watched, narrowly edging the early years of the original "Death to Flying Things" Andruw Jones. I just realized that maybe there is something here about ridiculously elite defensive players being from Curacao. I would like to start calling Andrelton "The Tovenaar" (Dutch for "wizard"), but that really doesn't have a good ring to it. But this is still a season preview, and I expect to write approximately 162 posts this year extolling my love for Simba's defense. It needs to be said that as excellent as his defense was, his batting was pretty atrocious. We all somewhat ignored how bad he was at the plate partly because of Andrelton's defense and partly because of the tire fire of Uggla and Bossman Junior. Andrelton posted a .248/.296/.396 triple slash, which is bad. Really bad. But there are numerous reasons to be positive that Andrelton will produce a positive season at the plate in 2014. The obvious is that he hit 17 home runs as a shortstop after previously only hitting 9 total in professional baseball. Home runs weren't his only power threat either; Simba hit 27 doubles and 6 triples last year, for an "ISO power" of .149 which is pretty good. Andrelton also doesn't strike out very often (55 Ks in 658 plate appearances) and drew walks at a respectable 6.1% clip. So why were his offensive numbers so bad? Batting average on balls in play. .247, which was tied for third worst in baseball for qualified hitters (Papa Uggs was second on that list). It's pretty easy to see why Simmons BABIP was so bad: not enough line drives and too many infield popouts. I was actually surprised by this because I actually expected to see a high groundball rate, average line drive rate, and low flyball rate, but it's the liners and grounders that are low. In the past month, the guys at Fangraphs have written numerous articles covering Simmons which are solid reads for a more in-depth discussion. Summary/prediction for 2014: Simmons hits more line drives, produces an average BABIP, posts a slightly-above average offensive season, and thus becomes the most valuable shortstop in baseball. (Spoiler alert for a future article: I love the Andrelton extension.)
Third Base - Chris Johnson
The other guy in the Justin Upton trade was a great season in 2013. It was certainly fueled by a .394 BABIP, which is unheard of, but not necessarily unsustainable for Johnson (career BABIP .361, which is in the top ten of ALL TIME). Chris Johnson is a line drive machine who uses the whole field. He strikes out a lot and doesn't draw many walks, so that BABIP and those line drives are what will keep him in a major league lineup. Defensively, Chris Johnson basically stands on the third base line and makes most of the routine plays since he has no range at third base but a great arm, which is acceptable because Andrelton more than makes up for his lack of range. Knowing essentially nothing about Chris Johnson at this time last year, I think I now know exactly who he is. He is not someone you give a long-term contract. He is not someone you want hitting in the top of your lineup. He is not a "first division" player. But if he is the 5th-6th best hitter in your lineup, then your team will probably be fine. The Braves will be just fine with Johnson. (Also the Braves really don't have a replacement.)
Bench:
Evan Gattis and Ryan Doumit - I covered them in the catchers preview. I view them both as pinch hitters, but unfortunately they will both see the field (probably often) and likely some time at first.
Tommy La Stella
La Stella is the future at second base: great hand-eye coordination and bat speed; excellent pitch recognitio; more walks than strikeouts; line drive machine; excellent base runner despite average speed. None of these are traits that are typical in the most recent crop of Braves' prospects. He plays a solid/average second base, which is (a) fine with Andrelton covering 90% of the infield and (b) average would be a significant upgrade over Uggla. I am extremely excited to see what La Stella can do this year (and not just because he is from nearby Closter, NJ). Minor league statistics translate better than you might expect (and definitely better than scouts and broadcasters would lead you to believe), and the projection systems love La Stella.
La Stella is not really that young (just turned 25 in January), so 2014 is a very important year for him. Fortunately, I think he will seize the opportunity and be the Atlanta second baseman for several years.
Ramiro Pena
Ramiro Pena had a great first season in Atlanta (.278/.330/.443) after coming over as a minor league free agent from the Yankees, cut short by an unfortunate injury. Pena is the quintessential fifth infielder. He can play second, third, or shortstop, although he's not particularly elite at any (still a great late inning defensive replacement for CJ or Uggla). He's a switch hitter who has enough plate discipline to be a good pinch hitter in late innings and a good lineup fill-in whenever one of the regulars needs a day off. Although he likely won't hit as well as he did in 2013, in this new era of baseball where players are no longer freely allowed to pop amphetamines, backups like Pena are crucial to the success of a team over 162 games.
Joey Terdoslavich
Terdo is a very interesting bench player in my opinion. He is a corner infielder/outfielder and switch-hitter providing depth for many spots. He consistently posted strong seasons in the minor leagues, and Terdo was absolutely mashing in his second trip through Gwinnett. Unfortunately, he looked lost in Atlanta, and major league pitchers recognized this, throwing off-speed pitches over 40% of the time against Terdo. I am confused by Terdo's debut because he hit no home runs, had a lot of strikeouts and groundballs, and drew more walks than in his minor league stops. I'm guessing that he makes the Opening Day roster and receives between 200-300 at-bats this season.
Ernesto Mejia
Mejia is a big, mashing righty first baseman. Over the past two seasons, he has clubbed 52 homers for Gwinnett. But he has also struck out 284 times. He is 28-years-old, and the Braves do not view him as a prospect. He's never even received a shot in the majors. I have to expect that most scouts and evaluators think that he has poor pitch recognition and is a bad-ball hitter, which is why he is a great "Quad-A" player but not big league material. That said, I would like to see him get a shot in the majors this year. He has proven what he can do in AAA, probably will not develop much beyond that, but it's worth finding out if he can be a lefty-mashing role player. If we don't see Ernesto in Atlanta this year, I bet he finds his way into a first-base platoon somewhere in the American League next season (Oakland and Houston are my guesses).
Tyler Pastornicky
Pastornicky's biggest claim to fame so far is that he was the guy that kept shortstop warm while Andrelton was proving that Double-A wasn't much of a challenge. I think Pastornicky is a better hitting, worse fielding version of Pena. He probably will never develop into a starting major leaguer, but don't forget that he is actually several months younger than Andrelton. Tyler should have a decent career and may even turn into a starter (see DeRosa, Mark for the best case scenario). 2014 likely will see Pastornicky starting at SS in Gwinnett, ready to be called up if Andrelton or Pena go down.
Elmer Reyes
Reyes isn't making the team, likely slated for Double-A Mississippi, but I thought I'd briefly write about him. Reyes is a 23-year-old shortstop from Nicaragua who strikes out too much, doesn't get on base enough, doesn't steal enough, but has shown surprising power. In 2010 (the only time he was ranked in the Braves' top 30 prospects), Baseball America said "He's a smooth defender who has the arm strength to play shortstop,
along with a quick release. He has a quick first step with soft hands
and consistently makes plays." I would expect that if anything happens to Pena this year, Reyes will be called upon to be the backup shortstop like Paul Janish was the past two years.
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