For the next edition of my preview series, I am taking a look at the bullpen.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Not too much to be said here (although Kimbrel's Nintendo-game career statistics are just begging for a follow-up post). He's the best closer in baseball. Absolutely dominant. Also the longest tenured closer in baseball. And now a very rich man. In a vacuum I would have argued that the Kimbrel money would have been better spent on Heyward or Minor or David Price, but the Braves appeared to be set on keeping Kimbrel for several years and an extension was the only realistic option for the Braves (Kimbrel's projected arbitration numbers could have been record-breaking). Four years and $42 million with a $13M team option for the fifth year is about as reasonable and discounted a price as the Braves were likely to get, and Craig is now financially secure for the rest of his life.
The only thing to discuss for Kimbrel is how Fredi G uses him. I would LOVE to see Kimbrel used in (a) longer stints and (b) in more high leverage situations. Now that he is locked up forever, there should be no concern from the Kimbrel camp about whether the Braves are hurting his future value, etc etc. Read this wonderful piece by the great Jonah Keri. For his career, Kimbrel has been used in "low leverage" situations about 40% of the time. This is absurd. I will probably write a 3,000-word essay on this topic later, but the summary is Kimbrel's usage should now be tied to actually trying to maximize the amount of games the Braves win. If you think Kimbrel can't pitch multiple innings or can't come in earlier in the game but when it is actually on the line, (a) you are wrong and (b) you are really really wrong. Kimbrel came up through the farm system throwing multiple innings and even pitched multiple innings for the brief period of time that Bobby Cox decided when to let him pitch (granted Kimbrel was setting up the great Billy Wagner). I'm sure I will continue this rant the next time that I'm reminded of this.
Set-up Guy #1: David Carpenter , RHP
Carpenter seemingly came out of nowhere in 2013. Carpenter had some strong minor league seasons coming up through the minors for the Cardinals and Astros, but nothing could have suggested that he would drop a 1.78 ERA with a 10.14 K/9 in 65 innings of work in the bigs. The first thing to know about Carpenter is that he throws hard. Really hard. Average fastball velocity of 95.1 MPH hard (that's top 20 in the major leagues hard). But 2013 was probably somewhat fluky. Carpenter threw a lot more strikes and walked a lot fewer hitters than in his prior life (which is good), but he also had a fantastic (but probably not repeatable) 90.9 left-on-base percentage and equally fantastic/improbable 0.69 HR/9 and .260 BABIP. However, even if he regresses a lot in 2013, Carpenter still should be no worse than a league average flamethrower. Not the guy you'd want as your top set-up man, but definitely a useful arm in the back of any bullpen.
Set-up Guy #2: Luis Avilan, LHP
Luis is one of my favorites. Absolute hell on lefties (30 IP, 15 hits last year). In 2013, Avilan proved that he was more than just a lefty specialist, filling in for the injured Venters and then O'Flaherty to take the top lefty set-up man spot. Luis will always struggle somewhat with control, especially against right-handers, but he throws a very hard, very heavy fastball, very often and induces a lot of groundballs from that pitch. I was surprised to see that he only had 38 Ks last year, but Luis has a low BABIP and a minuscule HR/FB rate (thanks to lots of grounders gobbled up by Andrelton), so his dominance hopefully is repeatable for a third season.
Set-up Guy #3: Jonny Venters, LHP
Jonny isn't expect back until May or June at the earliest after his 2012 Tommy John surgery. Bobby and Freddi ran Venters into the ground for his first three years in the majors. It's "hard to blame them" because Venters was so overwhelmingly dominant in those first three seasons, even wrestling the closer job from Kimbrel for about two weeks (Note: I actually do blame them and think Venter's usage was downright abusive. He threw 171 innings in 164 games during his first two seasons in the majors. With a duo like Venters and Kimbrel, they each should have been allowed to pitch two innings at a time. Same number of innings. Half the games. Less stress. It works.) Here's hoping that Jonny comes back to be the Venters we all know and love in 2014.
Set-up Guy #4: Jordan Walden, RHP
My initial reaction to the Hansen-for-Walden trade was that it was nuts and that Hansen could easily just replicate Walden's production if Hansen were placed in the bullpen. Things I didn't know that the Braves probably did: (1) Hansen's shoulder was shredded and (2) McDowell could fix Walden. The fixes appear to be (1) throw first pitch strikes more, (2) throw the change-up more, and (3) take a little off the fastball to add control because 96 mph is still hard enough to get outs. Walden was dominant for the majority of last season, until he fell off the map in September. He never had a problem with season fatigue in Anaheim, so my hope is that it is a small sample size and that the Braves will get the Walden from June-August and not the guy from September. If that's the case, then he will be the #1 guy on the list, not #4.
Middle Relief and Other Bullpen Options:
Ryan Buchter, LHP
Hard throwing lefty. LOTS of strikeouts in the minors. LOTS of walks in the minors. He likely will get a shot in the bullpen this year until Venters is back. I expect a lot of 3 Ks, 2 BBs type of innings from Buchter, which will mean a lot of cursing and holding my breathe. His scouting report and those GIFs make me optimistic that he is another Avilan, who will get work out his control-issues once he spends every day with McDowell and company.
Cory Gearrin, RHP
It feels like Gearrin has been around forever. The submarine righty out of Mercer is a sinker/slider groundball specialist, who at times looks unhittable and at times looks very hittable. His strikeout and walk rates along with his velocity are all trending in the wrong direction.
Atahualpa Severino, LHP
I had never heard of Severino until he signed a minor league contract with the Braves this offseason. He's left-handed so he's going to get a look, but his chances at making the roster are basically non-existent after his horrible start this Spring (3 IP, 5 ER). If he makes the roster, he could quickly become a favorite of mine since he is generously listed as 5'9 and 220 lbs.
Anthony Vavarro, RHP
Vavarro threw 73 innings last year in Atlanta, solidifying himself as a solid middle relief option for Atlanta. Vavarro throws hard (93+ mph), but he doesn't strike many guys out. He is out of options so he will need to repeat his 2013 to remain a Brave. I'm sure that he would be gobbled up by another team if he were ever to hit the waiver wire.
Luis Vasquez, RHP
A minor-league free agent, Vasquez is an interesting low-risk option for the Braves if one of the other righties does not pan out. He throws REALLY hard (up to 100+ mph), but he is basically a real-life Nuke Laloosh. A career minor league walk rate above 6 means that he will have to fix his mechanics if he will stick with the big league team. I'd expect that he will start the season in AAA. In his only appearance of the spring, he walked 2 and gave up 4 unearned runs in 2/3 of an inning.
Alex Wood / Brandon Beachy / David Hale
I covered these three guys in the preview of the rotation. It appears possible that two of them could be used in the bullpen to start the season or after Floyd returns to the rotation in May. All three guys have experience as long men in the bullpen, and each has flashed above-average to dominant stuff out of the bullpen. The biggest fear with any of these guys is that they will settle into a bullpen role and never be allowed to return to the rotation.
Other Prospect Options:
J.R Graham, RHP
Cody Martin, RHP
Gus Schlosser, RHP
Shae Simmons, RHP
Ian Thomas, LHP
(I think Schlosser, Simmons, and Thomas are all sleeprs that could see significant time in Atlanta this year, but not to start the season.)
Zach Stewart, RHP - The Braves acquired Stewart from the White Sox on March 10. A third round pick out of Texas Tech in 2008, Stewart was once a highly regarded prospect (Toronto's #1 prospect in 2009 according to Baseball America), but has bounced around a bit. Stewart has struggled in the majors, but he made 28 starts for the Charlotte (Chicago's AAA team) in 2013 with moderate success. My guess is that Stewart is both insurance for the Medlen/Minor/Beachy injury cluster and otherwise will allow David Hale to get some more seasoning in AAA.
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