For the next installment of my future award winning preview of the Braves' 2014 season, it's time to look at the catchers. I'm choosing to separate the catchers because I have a lot to say about this position and think that this is the most intriguing position on the team.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
First, I want to wish Brian McCann all of the luck and success in the world in his new digs in New York. I hate seeing him leave, but I think it was the right decision for all parties involved (although if I knew we had $14 million dollars to just throw at league average (hopefully) pitchers, I might have changed my tune). Brian McCann was already a rich man. Now he is a VERY rich man. The Yankees will certainly benefit from his great left-handed power, superb on-base skills, and excellent pitch framing abilities. But the Braves can't afford a 5 year, $85 million contract for an over-30 catcher, so it was time to let him go and accept the first-round draft pick as compensation. Thank you Brian McCann for 9 wonderful years in Atlanta. You will be missed.
The candidates to replace Brian are Evan Gattis, Ryan Doumit, Gerald Laird, Christian Bethancourt, and newly acquired Cuban free agent Yenier Bello.
Evan Gattis
El Oso Blanco is certainly the fan favorite to win the job. Last year Gattis slugged 21 homers, first filling in for the injured McCann and then forcing the Braves to keep him on the roster and use him as an outfielder and pinch hitting weapon. Gattis is not a refined hitter. He strikes out a lot (21.2% K rate) and does not walk a lot (5.5% BB rate). He also makes a lot of outs when he puts the ball in play, sporting only a .255 BABIP which does not appear to be fluky. Despite his mythology and common perception, Gattis does not hit a lot of line drives (14.5% compared to 26.7% for Freeman or 21.4% from Heyward), instead hitting approximately 40% groundballs and 45% flyballs. A whopping 10% of those flyballs are infield flyballs, aka automatic outs. Based on his pitch values over at Fangraphs and just watching every game last season, Gattis crushes fastballs and is dominated by good secondary pitches. Also I should note that Gattis is an atrocious defensive outfielder and an adequate-but-below-average defensive catcher. Because of all of this, I would strongly support Gattis serving as the backup catcher, being utilized as an ace pinch hitter, and getting the majority of starts at DH in interleague games. Unfortunately Fredi Gonzalez appears to disagree with me and is considering batting Gattis cleanup. If this is the case, you can expect a lot of complaints from me throughout the season. I think Gattis is a great weapon for the Braves to have, but I just think he was and will continue to be utilized poorly by the club.
Ryan Doumit
Doumit is basically an older version of Evan Gattis. He is known for his versatility as a catcher, first baseman, and outfielder, but all measures indicate that he is a disaster at first and in the outfield. He can switch hit, which is nice, and he could be a useful bench piece I suppose. His career triple slash is .268/.329/.438 which would be fine, but he was nowhere near that player last year in Minnesota. He dealt with concussion issues last year, and hopefully he has fully recovered to play a part-time role in Atlanta this year. The projection systems are not kind to Doumit, all of which predict a below average player for 2014, fueled in large part by his age.
Gerald Laird
Laird was brought in last season to replace the beloved David Ross. I was skeptical last season that he truly would replace Ross, but I was pleasantly surprised. Laird is an excellent backup catcher. He is solid behind the plate, both as a defender and as a pitch-caller. A lot of credit for Teheran's breakout season has to be given to his personal catcher, Laird. All of that would make Laird a valuable backup catcher. But he was pretty solid with the bat last year as well, posting his first above-average Runs Created season of his career. It looks like a major factor was his increased walk rate. I also expected to find an increased line drive rate as I recall Laird hitting a lot of line drives last year, which he did at 21.6%, but that rate was not out of line with other seasons in his career including 2012. Laird is the true backup catcher for the Braves, and honestly I would prefer that he see about 60% of the catching starts this season if the Braves only options were Doumit and Gattis.
Christian Bethancourt
Fortunately the Braves have another option. Bethancourt burst onto the national scene in 2004 as the 12-year-old star of the Panama LLWS team. I'll start with the bad about Bethancourt: he doesn't know how to draw a walk. His minor league on-base percentage is below .300. He's also appears to be a bad base runner, attempting 70 steals in his minor league career but being successful only on 48. Now the good: Bethancourt might be the catching version of Andrelton Simmons. He is considered by most people to have the potential to be (or really to already be) the best catcher on the planet whose last name isn't Molina. His throws to second base are off-the-charts good (and I literally mean off-the-charts - the equivalent of someone running a sub-4.0 40-yard-dash at the NFL combine). He is considered an exceptional pitch-framer and blocker. He also has major power, that he has only begun to tap into (12 homers last year, compared to 14 in his minor league career entering 2013). His power will also grow as he becomes more patient at the plate and learns to select more pitches. I really wish the Braves had one season to let Brian McCann groom Bethancourt about pitch selection, recognition, etc. because I truly think McCann was as good as it gets with those skills for a catcher.
Yenier Bello
Here is what I know about Bello: he's Cuban, he's a catcher, he's 29, he has power (12 homers in 90 Cuban games), and he signed a minor league deal with a $400k signing bonus. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him.
For what it's worth, I would name Bethancourt the starting catcher today, let him catch about 60% of the games (with Laird handling the other 40%). I would occasionally sprinkle Gattis in the lineup, but really would rather see him as a pinch hitter. I never would have acquired Doumit, and I would probably try to deal him now. Bethancourt most likely will struggle this year at the plate, but my guess is that his 2014 season would eerily resemble Andrelton's 2013 season: below-average on-base numbers, above-average power numbers, and defensive skills that make up for everything else. Even if Bethancourt only managed to post a triple slash of .250/.280/.370 (essentially what the projections say), that line would not be that much worse than what Gattis or Doumit would put up, and Bethancourt's defense will far outshine any of the other options.
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