The final installment of my season preview series.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
Infield
Left Field: Justin Upton
Welcome to Atlanta Mr. Upton. That's what we all said during the first month of 2013. Justin Upton looked like a man on a mission, like the second coming of Hank Aaron, and like a cornerstone to the franchise. His first 26 games saw a triple slash of .298/.402/.734 with 12 home runs. He only hit 15 homers the rest of the season and was basically an average hitter. Like just about everyone else in the lineup, Justin struck out a lot. Exactly 25% of the time in fact, which was an unfortunate return to the same K-rates as he saw in his first four seasons in the bigs and a regression from his last two seasons in Arizona which saw Justin post K-rates under 20%. Despite the obvious monthly roller coaster of 2013, Justin has been wildly consistent and wildly inconsistent in his major league career.
Wildly consistent because in his six full seasons, he has posted OBPs between .353 and .369, BB rates usually around 10-11%, and line drive rates right around 20%. However, Justin has posted inconsistent power numbers throughout his career: with slugging percentages between .430 and .532 and season homers ranging from 17 to 31. I'm not really sure why. The number of doubles has remained relatively consistent (~27) except for his almost-MVP season of 2011 (39 2Bs, 31 HRs). At times in 2013, Justin appeared overmatched by even average fastballs and at times he turned elite fastballs into souvenirs. Another thing to note is that Justin mashes LHPs but is merely average against RHPs (not ideal in a division with Strasburg, Zimmerman, Fister, Harvey, Wheeler, and Fernandez). In his first season in left field, Justin was "close your eyes and pray" bad out there. I thought he had a reputation as an average, maybe slightly below average, defender in Arizona, but his first year in Atlanta was ugly. Maybe it has something to do with left field (he played about 1/3 of his innings in RF last year where the metrics look more kindly upon him), but Justin gave back a lot of the positive value he contributed through sub-par defense.
The Braves have Justin under contract for two more years (at team friendly rates). In those two years, hopefully Justin will provide clarity about whether he is one of the best players in baseball or whether he is just a solid big league regular. Expect further discussion about the long-term outlook for the outfield, but as far as 2014 is concerned, I expect an overall offensive season similar to 2013 (with hopefully more consistency) along with potential improvements defensively in LF.
Center Field: B.J. Upton
I really don't have much to say about Bossman Junior. 2013 was a train wreck. Terribly disappointing first season in Atlanta. No power. No contact. Most of the time it looked like he had no approach at the plate. He always struck out a lot, but in 2013 he took it to new heights. When I saw this Sports Illustrated cover, I openly wondered whether Kate Upton would be a better option in CF. At least she would be a fun distraction while striking out, right? At least he was a solid defender. The Braves have four more years of this albatross contract. I think there's almost no chance that he lives up to it (I didn't think so when he signed it in the first place), but I would love if he bounced back to at least be a start-able major league player in 2014.
Right Field: Jason Heyward
This is what was supposed to happen in his first major league at-bat. That was four years ago. Heyward has teased us with greatness (it's an absolute joke that he didn't win the 2010 Rookie of the Year award). He has improved as a defender every year, rightfully earning a Gold Glove last year. And last year, Heyward took off once he was placed in the leadoff spot. I know he doesn't look like a typical leadoff hitter (typical meaning that Jason is built more like Adonis than Vince Coleman), but Heyward gets on base a lot, sees a lot of pitches, and is an excellent baserunner. He was always meant to bat first, but it just took the on-base problems of BJ and Andrelton for Fredi G. to realize it.
Heyward has played four full seasons in the major leagues. Has he been everything that we expected when he hit that monster home run of Zambrano in his first at-bat? No. But he has a triple slash of .259/.352/.443 for his young career while playing elite level defense in RF. He will also be 24 for nearly the entire 2014 baseball season. I expect a monster season from Heyward this year and next year. And then at the age of 26, he will enter free agency, be signed to a "ridiculous" contract (my way-too-early guess is that he signs an 8-year, $250 million deal with the Yankees, but quite frankly that might be too low), and we will all think fondly of Heyward.
Bench:
Jordan Schafer
Schafer is the only bench outfielder currently on the 25 man roster. Schafer has come a long way since being the Braves' #1 prospect in 2007 and Opening Day centerfielder in 2009. Hindsight is 20/20, but it appears pretty obvious that Schafer was pushed too hard and too fast by skipping Triple A in 2009 after a great .268/.378/.471 campaign in Double A in 2008. Schafer was the key piece in the deal that brought Michael Bourn to Atlanta, but on-field struggles and off-field incidents led to the Astros waiving Jordan after the 2012 season. The Braves claimed Schafer in November 2012, hoping that he could return some of his significant promise. In 2013, I think he did. He wrestled the CF job from $75 million man BJ Upton and provided a solid .247/.331/.346 campaign in 265 plate appearances. Jordan played all three OF positions (15 in LF, 30 in CF, 29 in RF) and played them all pretty well. He stole 22 bases in 28 attempts. He walked a lot. He struck out a bit too much. He did not hit for as much power as I would have liked to see. But ultimately 2013 was a major success and bounce back year for Schafer. He's still cost controlled and will be 27 all year, so the Braves are lucky to have Schafer back for another year. I think it is clear that if any starter gets injured or if Bossman is terrible again that Schafer should be the first option off the bench and is more than capable of holding down a starting spot.
Todd Cunningham
Cunningham did not make the Opening Day roster and is scheduled to be the starting CF again this year in Gwinnett. He's not a great prospect, but he is a speedy, switch-hitting centerfielder with moderate on-base skills but modest power. Expect him to be called up at some point this season and contribute as a backup outfielder.
Jose Constanza
I almost forgot about Constanza. He's a 30-year-old, light hitting, backup OF. I do not understand Fredi Gonzalez's love for Constanza (Fredi G. seems to be unable to resist starting Jose if he's on the major league roster) since Constanza is a poor man's Schafer or Cunningham. He is an average defensive OF (although a huge improvement over the catchers listed below), but despite being exceptionally fast, he has not been valuable to the Braves recently running the bases due mostly to a high number of caught stealings (both in AAA and in MLB). Constanza is fine as an emergency OF and September call up, but I think his best place is in Gwinnett.
Joey Terdoslavich, Evan Gattis, Ryan Doumit
These three were covered in previous posts. Terdo is actually listed as an outfielder on the Braves' website, and he's certainly a better defensive option than the catchers, but I still view him as an infielder.
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