Since I wrote my season preview for the rotation, the sky has been falling. Kris Medlen had Tommy John surgery (again). Brandon Beachy had Tommy John surgery (again). Freddy Garcia was released. Ervin Santana was signed.
Teheran has been named the Opening Day starter, basically by default. The Braves have gone from hoping for strong follow-up seasons from Teheran and Minor to needing strong seasons. Alex Wood has gone from candidate for the #5 spot to holding the third/fourth starter spot while Minor is on the DL. David Hale stands alone as the fourth starter.
Starter #3: Ervin Santana
A lot of writers have said that the Braves paid Ervin Santana to slot into Medlen's slot and give essentially equal value in return. I yelled a lot of obscenities at my television screen and iPhone every time I heard that argument. Ervin Santana is not Kris Medlen, but he is a solid major leaguer. He isn't worth the $14 million that the Braves gave up to get him, yet alone the draft pick, but that's another post. In 2013, Big Erv had a career low (fact check: second lowest. Erv pitched out of his mind in 2008.) walk rate, walking almost one full batter less per 9 innings in 2013 than his career average. His K/9 was, is, and will be somewhere in the mid-6s (fact check again: that 2008 season again. Really what did Erv do that year?). His HR/9 was bad (1.11, ranked 61st out of 81 qualified starters), but it actually lowered his career HR/9 to 1.22. Santana gives up a lot of homers. Positive qualities: Ervin also eats a lot of innings. Five seasons throwing more than 200 innings. His groundball rate has also been increasing, presumably due to more changeups and sliders and less reliance on the fastball. Unfortunately Buster Olney reported on one of his podcasts (sorry no link) that scouts were saying that Erv is really one slider away from being the next pitcher on Dr. Andrews' cutting table. My 2014 outlook for Santana is cautiously optimistic. Turner Field will keep some of his home runs in the park. Upton-Upton-Heyward will get to more flyballs than any outfield he's ever pitched in front of. Andrelton will turn those more frequent grounders into outs. Hopefully he will throw more strikes. Numerous starts against the Marlins, Mets, and Phillies will mean weak lineups to face. I'm rooting for 200+ innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball, but I recognize that a terrible season (see 2007, 2007, and 2012) is also a real possibility with Ervin Santana.
Starter #5: Aaron Harang
Apparently the Braves are going to start the year letting Aaron Harang eat some innings. My initial reaction can be found here. Jonathan's reactions to the signing can be found here. There's nothing flashy about Harang. He is a standard four-pitch guy (fastball, slider, curve, change) and mostly been an injury-prone, strike throwing, innings eater. He doesn't have the upside of other potential signings (e.g. Erik Bedard), but he doesn't have as much downside potential on a per-start basis. The bullpen is going to be taxed in April due to all of the injuries, so adding someone who should provide 5-7 innings per start is valuable to Atlanta.
Gus Schlosser
As much as I would love to jump on the Gus Schlosser bandwagon and hope that he would be the next Braves farm hand to come out of nowhere to provide quality innings like Beachy and Wood before him, I don't think Gus is that guy. Schlosser is a side-winding righty with fringe-average "stuff" as the scouts say. He has been dominant in the minor leagues against subpar opponents, but there is a reason that he has never been on a Braves' top prospect list even after three consecutive excellent minor league seasons. Scouts do not believe that Schlosser can get major league hitters out. It's one thing if your deceptive pitching motion is backed up with 95 mph gas (Alex Wood), but it's a different when you are throwing 85-90 mph (Cory Gearrin and now Schlosser). The latter guys make fine bullpen pieces, and with Gearrin's recent injury, I would love to see Schlosser in the bullpen as a multiple inning guy. I would love for Gus to force his way into the rotation by providing 2-3 inning lights out performances in April. Unfortunately I don't think that will happen. (I would also like to point out that even though Gus has made 3 starts in spring training, he is not really stretched out for a starting job right now. The most pitches he has thrown has been 33 and that was mostly due to walking 4 Marlins in his second outing.) [Update: Schlosser has made the team and will serve as the long reliever out of the bullpen.]
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