[UPDATE: It's possible the Marlins were stealing signs, which makes me feel a little better.]
The Braves sit in first place atop the NL East once again at 17-9, holding a two game lead other the Nationals and Mets. Looking at the standings, two things jump out. The Braves lead all of baseball in Runs Allowed (76 runs in 26 games - or 58 runs in the first 24!) with a 13-run lead over the second-place Athletics, but the Braves are also 28th in baseball in Runs Scored in front of only the woeful Padres and Astros.
This really is the team that we expected in the preseason, turned up a degree. The pitching and defense were the obvious strengths of the team, but what an impressive first-month display from both! Led by Jason Heyward the outfield defense has been spectacular. The infield defense has been less wonderful (Uggla has made SEVEN errors already and Gattis has made three), but Andrelton has been his useful brand of amazing. Really the first month is all about the starting pitching. Despite getting shellacked the past two nights, no one in the rotation has an ERA over 3.00. The only ERAs above 3.00 on the whole staff belong to Vavarro (Tuesday's Marlins game is also to blame here), Schlosser, and Avilan. The rotation has been incredibly impressive and went deep into almost every game (20 quality starts!). Although the current rotation is likely to regress to more average pitchers (or already has started during this Miami series), the reinforcements (Minor and Floyd) are coming to counter the regression. The bullpen was solid/great and actually performed to about their true talent level. The new sit down/shut up/go home trio of Carpenter, Walden, and Kimbrel have been excellent. No home runs allowed, FIPs all under 1.50, K/9 all north of 11, and all of that with BABIPs all above .300. Ian Thomas has been a solid addition to the bullpen as well, and he is an excellent human interested piece as a non-drafted free agent who went from independent leagues to the majors. Thomas has proven to be effective against both righties and lefties as a strong replacement while the Braves await the return of Jonny. I love the addition of David Hale to the bullpen as a great swingman option. I will write about this in another post analyzing bullpen utilization, but I think that is a great spot for Hale right now. There is actually not a lot more to say about the pitching staff.
The offense deserves more discussion. I wrote a review after the first week of the season, and not much has changed except Justin Upton has replaced Chris Johnson as the other good offensive player. Andrelton has been solid. Freeman has been amazing. Johnson, Bossman, Heyward, Uggla, and Doumit have been tire fires. Gattis has been an interesting case since he is still not getting on base at all (.289 OBP and only 3 walks in 80 PAs), but he has slugged a lot of home runs and posted a slugging percentage of .554 which mitigates his inability to get on base. He has at least proven that he should remain a regular in the lineup (especially while Bethancourt struggles mightily in Gwinnett).
Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman have been excellent in April. Justin of course was his special brand of streaky, rollercoastering between the best hitter in baseball and an automatic out. Freddie was his special brand of consistent awesomeness. Nothing really more to say here.
Second base is a different scenario. I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can pretend that Dan Uggla is a viable option. I think Uggla is a good person (for example, read this interview on Fangraphs), but he has been terrible for the past two years. Not just a disappoint when compared to his contract, but a below replacement level player. Maybe he needs a change of scenery, but I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can continue to allow him to eat up at-bats and make miscues in the field. La Stella appears ready. (.330/.390/.352 in Gwinnett so far), and Phil Gosselin has emerged as another potential option. I honestly think the Braves should waive Uggla and see if anyone is willing to pick up his contract (spoiler: they won't), and when that fails, just try and trade him for pennies on the dollar. Fortunately he is not a clubhouse cancer, but every start that Dan Uggla gets lowers the Braves' chances to win that baseball game.
Centerfield is another problem area. Bossman has been a below average hitter but actually an above average defender this year. There is absolutely no power in his bat right now (.327 slugging), but otherwise he is basically the below-average hitter that the Braves should have known they were acquiring. B.J. is also 5 for 6 in stolen base attempts which is another positive. That said, I think Jordan Schafer remains a viable option to at least platoon with B.J. Yes, Schafer has struggled in limited at-bats this year, but not really worse than B.J. Bossman's triple slash against righties this year is .200/.250/.333 which is bad. In limited at-bats, Upton has shown again that he has better discipline against lefties (6 walks and only 6 Ks), which again leads me to suggest that the Braves should consider a platoon or at least should consider allowing Jordan to start against some right-handed pitchers. We saw the first sign of this being a possibility when Jordan was given the unenviable task of starting against the elite Jose Fernandez on Tuesday. Another option may be Todd Cunningham who is getting playing well in Gwinnett.
Chris Johnson was just locked up to a three-year deal which is somewhat bothersome since he has struggled mightily in April. Before the extension, I thought he was becoming another candidate to get replaced by La Stella / Gosselin / Ramiro Pena. I would like to see less flyballs and strikeouts and more walks from Johnson especially if he's not going to hit home runs, but he still boasts a great line drive rate and I think Johnson is a candidate to slightly improve going forward.
Finally Jason Heyward. He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball, so he's staying in the starting lineup and will provide positive value no matter how terrible he hits. He's a great baserunner (please please please stop sliding headfirst though). But he just can't seem to hit anymore. His power is gone. Which would be fine if he was getting on base at a reasonable rate. Leadoff hitters cannot have OBPs below 300. The problem lies mostly against LHPs. In 22 PAs against lefties, his triple slash is a ridiculous .095/.136/.143 including 10 Ks and only 1 walk. Although he has always been worse against lefties, this is a new low. The Braves cannot afford to bench Heyward and lose his defense, but perhaps a solution is to swap Andrelton and Heyward in the lineup against lefties. This simple swap reduces the amount of plate appearances Heyward has against lefties and allows Andrelton to keep getting on base for Freddie and Justin.
Overall, April must be seen as a roaring success. The Braves have the best defense in baseball and banked a lot of wins against division rivals. The starting rotation became an asset when treading water was all that was asked of them. In May, Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd return. May will also be past the Super Two minor league deadline, which will allow the Braves to bring up La Stella without losing a year of team control (I know the Braves never really operate this way but it's something to bring up). Hopefully a few minor switches and the warmer weather increase the run productivity of the offense as the pitching staff comes slightly back down to Earth.
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