The Marlins made two moves this week. First they traded away a compensation pick in this week's amateur draft (#39 overall, $1.4 million slot value) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for reliever Bryan Morris. Today the Marlins signed veteran reliever Kevin Gregg to a one year, pro-rated $2.1 million deal.
Taken as separate transactions, these moves are questionable and would likely cause a mini-rant from me if made by the Braves. But they apparently are not separate moves. Instead the Marlins have indicated that they traded the #39 overall pick in order to clear budget space to sign Kevin Gregg. This. Is. Ridiculous.
I recognize that Wins Above Replacement is not a be-all-end-all statistic or anywhere close, but according to Fangraphs, over the past three seasons Gregg has posted WARs of -0.3, -0.2, and -0.1. Meaning for three consecutive seasons he has been worse than replacement level. Worse than a random minor leaguer that you should be able to acquire for virtually nothing.
The excellent website MLBTradeRumors keeps a running track of players who are in "DFA limbo": http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/dfatracker. This is essentially a list of replacement level players since these players can be had for nothing (there are minor costs for acquiring a player through waivers, not worthy of discussion here). Take a second to look at the list. What you will find is a plethora of relievers who are capable of getting outs in the majors but not pitchers whom you are likely to trust in the 8th inning of a playoff game. (Note: the Braves did acquire David Carpenter off waivers last spring, but his results in the 8th inning of Game Four of the NLDS were not pleasant.) There are several pitchers who are currently in DFA limbo that I would rather acquire than Kevin Gregg, not even considering the financial and opportunity costs of acquiring Gregg.
There are two major costs to the Marlins by making these moves. They gave away the right to acquire a potential impact player at #39 overall. More importantly they surrendered draft flexibility. The Marlins still own the #2, #36, and #43 picks in this year's draft. The second overall selection should be an impact talent (likely either LHP Carlos Rodon or C/OF Alex Jackson) who will not require the full slot value to sign. The combined slot value for picks 36, 39, and 43 is $4,347,500, which falls somewhere between the slot value for the 4th and 5th picks in the draft. $2.9 million (values for 36 and 42) is equivalent to the #11 pick. I have read rumors on MLB.com and Baseball America that Alex Jackson likely falls to #6 if the Astros or Marlins do not select him. If I'm running the Marlins and truly believe that Jackson is worthy of consideration at #2, then I would have entered into a pre-draft deal with Rodon, assuming that he does not go first overall to Houston and that he's the guy they want. This deal likely will be below slot, so let's assume that Rodon gets $6 million, saving the Marlins $800k. That leaves $5.1 million to distribute between picks 36, 39, and 43. I would suggest to Alex Jackson that he set his price tag at $4.5 million which is more than the Mariners or Twins could offer him at picks 5 or 6 and then nab him at pick 36. Then I would take two solid but not first round prospects at 39 and 43. Those prospects would have to agree to pre-draft deals as well for around $300,000 each, which is equivalent to a late 5th round pick. I just looked at Jim Callis at MLB.com's draft rankings and found a few excellent choices to bring this post full circle. Derick Velazquez, Brad Roney, A.J. Vanegas, Adam Ravenelle, Reed Reilly, and Patrick Weigel are all college relievers ranked by Callis between 144 and 159. These pitchers likely are not ready to jump into a major league bullpen, but they would come with 6+ years of team control in the big leagues and are potentially better options than Gregg right now. Plus you essentially have traded picks 36, 39, and 43 for pick 4, 157, and 158, which is a trade that I believe every team would make every day of the week.
This would not have been the only option for the Marlins. Teams are not required to be creative in the draft even if the Astros and Blue Jays have shown it helps to build farm systems. The Marlins could have gone straight slot on all of their picks, and they still would have been able to acquire (at least) the 39th best player available on their draft board, who would be under their control for a long time. Recent 39th overall picks have included Lance Lynn, Tony Gwynn Jr., and current minor league home run king Joey Gallo. Last year's 39th overall pick, Corey Knebel, is already in the majors and would be exactly the type of the player the Marlins would have been interested in before the trade.
Instead the Marlins opted for a below-average, 35-year-old reliever. Lessons in How Not to Run a Baseball Franchise.
[UPDATE: Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs agrees with me.]
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