Jason Heyward Follow-Up

Jason Heyward told Dave O'Brien today that the Braves never approached him about an extension.  Let me reiterate that: our homegrown, hometown, MVP-caliber, 25-year-old right fielder indicated that he was interested in signing a long-term extension or at least "remaining in Atlanta beyond 2015" and the Braves never opened discussions.  John Hart never once discussed even a framework. The speculation around the media was of course that the Braves approached him and determined that he was out of their price range, which sadly was incorrect. 

This news makes me sad.  It is disheartening.  I am disappointed, but of course I cannot be shocked.  This just furthers my lack of confidence in the way that this organization has been run for nearly a decade now. 

My sincere hope is that Jason Heyward is back in Atlanta in 2016.  He's been the most valuable player on the Braves since his first game in the majors, and I will truly miss watching him play baseball everyday.

2015 Hot Stove (aka mayday mayday Jason Heyward has been traded)

I have been intending to write a long post about the 2014 season, where the Braves go in 2015, etc.  I would love to spend some time writing about John Hart and John Coppolella.  But then we reached DEFCOM ONE MILLION BECAUSE THE BRAVES JUST TRADED TOMMY LA STELLA AND JASON HEYWARD.  If you cannot tell already by my use of all-caps, this will not be a statistically based post but instead is basically pure emotion about trading away some of the only enjoyable parts of a horrific team.

John Hart has made three trades this week:
1. Kyle Wren (future CF) traded for a bag of peanuts.
2. Tommy La Stella traded to bring back Arodys but also for $800k in international money.
3. Jason Heyward exiled to St. Louis.

This is early in the offseason.  Other deals (hopefully) will be made.  But on November 17, the Braves have the following lineup:
C - Christian Bethancourt
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Phil Gosselin
SS - Andrelton Simmons
3B - Chris Johnson
LF - Evan Gattis
CF - BJ Upton
RF - Justin Upton

Writing it down makes it feel so much worse.  This team will not score runs.  Now they also won't prevent runs from scoring as the Braves essentially swapped out the best outfielder in baseball for the worst.  The only positions that I would keep the same are catcher, first, short, and right field.  Gosselin is not even short-term second base option, and Jose Peraza cannot get here fast enough.  Chris Johnson is a bad hitter and possibly the worst defensive third baseman in baseball.  Anything that Evan Gattis brings as a hitter will be napalmed by his defense in left.  BJ Upton in Atlanta is the human form of a dumpster fire.

The Braves rotation is young and cheap:  Teheran, Wood, Miller, Minor, Beachy/Medlen/Hale.  Did the Braves really need Shelby Miller though?? After getting above-average work from castoffs like Aaron Harang, is the rotation really a spot that needed to be upgraded?

I understand that the Braves decided that Jason Heyward was not going to sign long term in Atlanta and therefore needed to maximize his return.  (Prediction: Heyward gets 10 years and $225 million from the Yankees in the offseason.)  Selling high on Walden seems like a good idea, but the Cardinals wouldn't have traded Shelby Miller straight up for Jason Heyward??  That seems ridiculous.  Pretending that Tyrell Jenkins is anything more than a lottery ticket is just silly and insincere.

There are rumors that this trade is just the third of many in the offseason shakeup.  Justin Upton and Evan Gattis could be next out the door.

For today, Jason Heyward you will be truly missed.  I hope that you win your first Most Valuable Player award next season in St. Louis and then get that huge contract.  [Holding out hope that Heyward miraculously resigns in Atlanta next offseason.]

What now?

The Braves have fallen under .500 for the first time all season.  This team is a dumpster fire.  I have not been able to watch a full game in weeks because I just have no interest. 

At some point once the season is over, I will write an autopsy of the 2014 Braves, but quite honestly there will probably be a lot of "I told you so" because this is exactly the team I expected. 

Raising Teenagers

Russell Carlton writes a wonderful blog over at Baseball Prospectus called "Baseball Therapy."  Having only recently become a Baseball Prospectus subscriber -- it only costs $40 per year (!!) and is well worth the investment -- I was not familiar with his writing.  He is thoughtful and excellent and writes about the type of issues facing baseball that I am interested in (and am interested in writing about here).

Payroll and the Internal Salary Cap

It's time to debunk a myth that has been perpetuated by the Atlanta Braves since Ted Turner stopped owning the team. In his autobiography Built to Win, John Scheurholz stated that one offseason he leaked to the media that he was trying to run the Braves on a budget when negotiating to resign Jeff Blauser, and Ted Turner called him and frankly said, “John, what’s this shit I read about a budget? You wanna sign Jeff Blauser, sign him!”  Oh how I miss Trillionaire Ted.

Today I stumbled across some news that has me quite frankly pissed off.  In discussing salaries and league revenues with a friend across different sports, I quickly went to Forbes' annual franchise valuations expecting to see that the Hawks and the Braves have relatively the same amount of revenues which is why the NBA salary cap is a farce.  What I found shocked me:

The Chris Johnson Extension

It's time to write about the baby elephant that has been hiding in the corner of the Braves' extension room. 

First Half Review

Since we are at the All-Star Break, it's a good time for a "first half" review.  The Braves have actually played 95 games, so this is not truly the halfway point (and which is why I support moving the ASB to July 4 weekend).  Rather than write a long soliloquy about every thought I have about every player and decision on this roster, I am going to focus on a few important topics.

Do the Braves win in spite of Frank Wren?

The title of this blog post is taken directly from an article written by Mark Bradley.

R.I.P. Tony Gwynn

Greg Maddux was convinced no hitter could tell the speed of a pitch with any meaningful accuracy. To demonstrate, he pointed at a road a quarter-mile away and said it was impossible to tell if a car was going 55, 65 or 75 mph unless there was another car nearby to offer a point of reference.

“You just can’t do it,” he said. Sometimes hitters can pick up differences in spin. They can identify pitches if there are different releases points or if a curveball starts with an upward hump as it leaves the pitcher’s hand. But if a pitcher can change speeds, every hitter is helpless, limited by human vision.

“Except,” Maddux said, “for that [expletive] Tony Gwynn.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/greg-maddux-a-hall-of-fame-approach-that-carried-an-average-arm-to-cooperstown/2014/01/07/fdd7ae82-77d3-11e3-af7f-13bf0e9965f6_story.html 

Rest In Peace Tony Gwynn

Bat Flip of the Century

Hunt Smith, a senior from Warner Robins, hit a grand slam in the pivotal game of the 5A state playoffs. He also won the bat-flipping championship belt. Puig, eat your heart out:




Jonah Keri didn't even vote this as his best bat flip of the week, which is just insane.

First Day Draft Review

Yesterday the Braves selected North Carolina high school OF Braxton Davidson at pick 32 and Texas high school RHP Garrett Fulenchek at pick 66.  Both of these players had been mentioned as potential targets for the Braves at pick 32, so the Braves are likely pleased to have landed both.  One interesting thing to note is that both guys are young for their class with neither turning 18 until later this month. 

Braves Current Lineup is to Blame for the Missing Offense

Braves current go to lineup:

Heyward, RF
B. Upton, CF
Freeman, 1B
J. Upton, LF
Gattis, C
Johnson, 3B
Simmons, SS
La Stella, 2B
Pitcher

From day one, I've hated this lineup. It's not balanced and it provides Freeman and J. Upton with NO support. You have the strikeout king batting in the two hole.

Happy MLB Draft Day

I am a draft nerd.  This is my favorite day of the year.  I fondly remember in high school and college watching the first streaming broadcasts of the draft on my laptop during the warm summer afternoons in Georgia.  The draft has become more mainstream with the advent of MLB Network, and now is broadcast from MLB Networks Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey.  One day hopefully the draft telecast will be more available to the public like the other professional league drafts because MLB Network Studios is just a ten-minute drive from my apartment.

Lessons in How Not to Run a Baseball Franchise (Miami Edition)

The Marlins made two moves this week.  First they traded away a compensation pick in this week's amateur draft (#39 overall, $1.4 million slot value) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for reliever Bryan Morris.  Today the Marlins signed veteran reliever Kevin Gregg to a one year, pro-rated $2.1 million deal.

La Stella Time

After five games in the big leagues, there's one thing I know for certain about Tommy La Stella: he can hit.

The Ghost of Bret Boone

                On November 10, 1998, John Schuerholz pulled off a trade that continues to haunt the Braves to this day.  No, none of the players the Braves gave up went on to have Hall of Fame careers elsewhere.  In fact, neither Rob Bell, Denny Neagle, nor Michael Tucker did much of anything after leaving Atlanta.  And, the package the Braves got in return arguably helped them to another World Series (and another World Series loss to the Yankees).  Nevertheless, that deal, made now sixteen years ago reflected a shift in how the Braves would build their lineup going forward—and it has not proven to be a shift for the better.

Julio Teheran and even more questionable bullpen decisions

Julio Teheran was allowed to throw 128 pitches in a complete game shutout last night.  I am not sure how I feel about this right now, but the game was virtually over (5-0 after 8 innings is basically 99.8% over).  There have been a slew of pitcher injuries recently, and I am terrified that our 23-year-old phenom is next.  On the other hand, Teheran has built up the arm strength to throw over 120 pitches and as Carlos Rodon (potential #1 overall pick this year) has reminded us, the only way to know how you perform in those situations is to get there in game situations.

I have no idea what the right decision is here, but I am concerned.

Another Cash Influx for the Braves

According to the AJC, the Braves have renegotiated their TV deal.  The Braves were notorious as one of the teams with the worst deals in baseball. The term of the old deal went through 2027 and was signed in 2007 just before the market for local television rights deals skyrocketed.

The only term of this new deal that is known is that the Braves expect to receive $500 million over the life of the deal. That is not chump change and apparently is a significant increase over the old deal, but the true impact of the deal (such as increased yearly revenue, if it is performance/ratings based, and the length of deal). 

Coupled with the new stadium deal (which we all hate but not for financial benefits to the Braves), the Braves have gone from a small market team to an upper-mid market team which is where they should be. The slew of extensions and the Ervin Santana deal are the first results of the new financial reality for the Braves and hopefully there is more to come. Personally I would love to see the Braves go wild during this amateur international signing period, blow past their slot, and just sign everyone they think is worthy. It's probably better for another post, but the weak penalties for blowing international  probably will not last much longer so the Braves should take advantage while they have the opportunity.

Next up for the Braves TV deal: bring back Boog Sciambi!!

Injuries - The New Market Inefficiency

I was planning on doing a series of posts about all of the new potential "Moneyball" inefficiencies that baseball teams could capitalize on.  At some point I still plan on writing about these (several of which are already in use) such as nutrition for minor league players, efficient roster construction, platoons, defensive shifts, and bullpen usage.

However there is one inefficiency that stands out.  In light of Jose Fernandez's injury and the slew of other injuries that have occurred recently, the most obvious inefficiency in baseball is injury prevention, specifically with pitchers.  Jose Fernandez.  Jameson Taillon.  Matt Moore.  Patrick Corbin.  Jarrod Parker.  Brandon Beachy.  Kris Medlen.  That's a partial list of pitchers to undergo TJ surgery in 2014!  (Update: add Martin Perez to the list. Sigh.). Dylan Bundy, Matt Harvey, Lucas Giolito, Neftali Feliz, Arodys Vizcaino, Stephen Strasburg, Brett Anderson, and Adam Wainwright all have also undergone TJ surgery since the end of the 2010 season  (Note: I didn't double-check this, but I believe my second list includes only pitchers who were once ranked their organization's best player.). 

The baseball world needs to fix this problem.  Teams do not have an incentive to share their advances in biomechanics with the rest of the world, but the first team to even remotely figure out how to prevent UCL injuries will reap a benefit many magnitudes greater than the original on-base percentage/don't-make-outs revolution that was the original "Moneyball."

Bad Bullpen Decisions Everywhere

As I'm typing, the Braves have their first comfortable lead in a long time. The bats were alive for the first time in weeks, including strong at-bats from virtually everyone who stepped in. With that in mind I think tonight is a perfect opportunity to discuss something I have intended to write about for a while: bullpen usage.  Specifically each team made a questionable move that may not have effected the outcome of tonight's game but could prove to be problematic down the road. 

Freddie Freeman - Not Just a Hug-Machine

Apparently our favorite ginger found his jiggle juice at a wedding recently, and the results are fantastic:

Jose Fernandez

Very sad non-Braves news today. Marlins phenom Jose Fernandez appears to be headed towards Tommy John surgery. After losing Medlen, Beachy, and Gearrin for the year, Braves fans certainly can feel sympathy for those few Miami fans. 

This is also sad news for baseball in general. Jose Fernandez was the best young pitcher in baseball. Period. His rookie season, a jump straight from High A to the majors, was outstanding. His sophomore year had been even better. A ridiculous strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate. 

It's probably no surprise to anyone reading this to know that I watch a lot of baseball games. I gravitate towards the best starting pitchers for non-Braves games. (Spoiler alert for those that know me) Zack Greinke is my #1. My second favorite pitcher to watch is Jose Fernandez. If I had the magic power to prevent one pitcher from tearing his UCL who wasn't a member of the Atlanta Braves, Jose Fernandez would be my only choice.  If you have MLB.tv, I encourage you to go back and watch any of Fernandez's 8 starts this year because Jose Fernandez starts are must-watch television. Pinpoint control of a high-90s fastball and a hammer curve. He's animated. He's fun. He's 21. Atlanta fans certainly can remember his two dominant performances head-to-head against Alex Wood earlier this year. 

Jose Fernandez, I wish you the speediest and healthiest of recoveries. And one day, I hope you are throwing those laser fastballs and hammer curves in an Atlanta uniform. 

April Review

If April only had 28 days, I would be thrilled with the first full month of the season.  Unfortunately it does not, and the past two nights have significantly dampened my excitement about the amazing start to the season.
[UPDATE: It's possible the Marlins were stealing signs, which makes me feel a little better.]


The Braves sit in first place atop the NL East once again at 17-9, holding a two game lead other the Nationals and Mets.  Looking at the standings, two things jump out.  The Braves lead all of baseball in Runs Allowed (76 runs in 26 games - or 58 runs in the first 24!) with a 13-run lead over the second-place Athletics, but the Braves are also 28th in baseball in Runs Scored in front of only the woeful Padres and Astros. 

This really is the team that we expected in the preseason, turned up a degree.  The pitching and defense were the obvious strengths of the team, but what an impressive first-month display from both!  Led by Jason Heyward the outfield defense has been spectacular.  The infield defense has been less wonderful (Uggla has made SEVEN errors already and Gattis has made three), but Andrelton has been his useful brand of amazing.  Really the first month is all about the starting pitching.  Despite getting shellacked the past two nights, no one in the rotation has an ERA over 3.00.  The only ERAs above 3.00 on the whole staff belong to Vavarro (Tuesday's Marlins game is also to blame here), Schlosser, and Avilan.  The rotation has been incredibly impressive and went deep into almost every game (20 quality starts!).  Although the current rotation is likely to regress to more average pitchers (or already has started during this Miami series), the reinforcements (Minor and Floyd) are coming to counter the regression.  The bullpen was solid/great and actually performed to about their true talent level.  The new sit down/shut up/go home trio of Carpenter, Walden, and Kimbrel have been excellent.  No home runs allowed, FIPs all under 1.50, K/9 all north of 11, and all of that with BABIPs all above .300.  Ian Thomas has been a solid addition to the bullpen as well, and he is an excellent human interested piece as a non-drafted free agent who went from independent leagues to the majors.  Thomas has proven to be effective against both righties and lefties as a strong replacement while the Braves await the return of Jonny.  I love the addition of David Hale to the bullpen as a great swingman option.  I will write about this in another post analyzing bullpen utilization, but I think that is a great spot for Hale right now.  There is actually not a lot more to say about the pitching staff.

The offense deserves more discussion.  I wrote a review after the first week of the season, and not much has changed except Justin Upton has replaced Chris Johnson as the other good offensive player.  Andrelton has been solid.  Freeman has been amazing.  Johnson, Bossman, Heyward, Uggla, and Doumit have been tire fires.  Gattis has been an interesting case since he is still not getting on base at all (.289 OBP and only 3 walks in 80 PAs), but he has slugged a lot of home runs and posted a slugging percentage of .554 which mitigates his inability to get on base.  He has at least proven that he should remain a regular in the lineup (especially while Bethancourt struggles mightily in Gwinnett).  

Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman have been excellent in April.  Justin of course was his special brand of streaky, rollercoastering between the best hitter in baseball and an automatic out.  Freddie was his special brand of consistent awesomeness.  Nothing really more to say here.

Second base is a different scenario.  I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can pretend that Dan Uggla is a viable option.  I think Uggla is a good person (for example, read this interview on Fangraphs), but he has been terrible for the past two years.  Not just a disappoint when compared to his contract, but a below replacement level player.  Maybe he needs a change of scenery, but I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can continue to allow him to eat up at-bats and make miscues in the field.  La Stella appears ready.  (.330/.390/.352 in Gwinnett so far), and Phil Gosselin has emerged as another potential option.  I honestly think the Braves should waive Uggla and see if anyone is willing to pick up his contract (spoiler: they won't), and when that fails, just try and trade him for pennies on the dollar.  Fortunately he is not a clubhouse cancer, but every start that Dan Uggla gets lowers the Braves' chances to win that baseball game.

Centerfield is another problem area.  Bossman has been a below average hitter but actually an above average defender this year.  There is absolutely no power in his bat right now (.327 slugging), but otherwise he is basically the below-average hitter that the Braves should have known they were acquiring.  B.J. is also 5 for 6 in stolen base attempts which is another positive.  That said, I think Jordan Schafer remains a viable option to at least platoon with B.J.  Yes, Schafer has struggled in limited at-bats this year, but not really worse than B.J.  Bossman's triple slash against righties this year is .200/.250/.333 which is bad.  In limited at-bats, Upton has shown again that he has better discipline against lefties (6 walks and only 6 Ks), which again leads me to suggest that the Braves should consider a platoon or at least should consider allowing Jordan to start against some right-handed pitchers.  We saw the first sign of this being a possibility when Jordan was given the unenviable task of starting against the elite Jose Fernandez on Tuesday.  Another option may be Todd Cunningham who is getting playing well in Gwinnett.

Chris Johnson was just locked up to a three-year deal which is somewhat bothersome since he has struggled mightily in April.  Before the extension, I thought he was becoming another candidate to get replaced by La Stella / Gosselin / Ramiro Pena.  I would like to see less flyballs and strikeouts and more walks from Johnson especially if he's not going to hit home runs, but he still boasts a great line drive rate and I think Johnson is a candidate to slightly improve going forward.

Finally Jason Heyward.  He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball, so he's staying in the starting lineup and will provide positive value no matter how terrible he hits.  He's a great baserunner (please please please stop sliding headfirst though).  But he just can't seem to hit anymore.  His power is gone.  Which would be fine if he was getting on base at a reasonable rate.  Leadoff hitters cannot have OBPs below 300.  The problem lies mostly against LHPs.  In 22 PAs against lefties, his triple slash is a ridiculous .095/.136/.143 including 10 Ks and only 1 walk.  Although he has always been worse against lefties, this is a new low.  The Braves cannot afford to bench Heyward and lose his defense, but perhaps a solution is to swap Andrelton and Heyward in the lineup against lefties.  This simple swap reduces the amount of plate appearances Heyward has against lefties and allows Andrelton to keep getting on base for Freddie and Justin.

Overall, April must be seen as a roaring success.  The Braves have the best defense in baseball and banked a lot of wins against division rivals.  The starting rotation became an asset when treading water was all that was asked of them.  In May, Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd return.  May will also be past the Super Two minor league deadline, which will allow the Braves to bring up La Stella without losing a year of team control (I know the Braves never really operate this way but it's something to bring up).  Hopefully a few minor switches and the warmer weather increase the run productivity of the offense as the pitching staff comes slightly back down to Earth. 

A Trip to Citi Field

The Braves came to town over Easter weekend, and I was able to go to the games on Friday and Saturday night.  Fortunately I chose not to go to Sunday's 5+ hour marathon game.

Here are my thoughts on the weekend:

1. Too Cold.  It was way too cold for a mid-April baseball game.  Temperatures dropped into the low 30s with a harsh cross wind.  I never leave baseball games early, but I left Friday's game in the 8th inning (more on that below).
2. Citi Field is nice. I sat in left field for both games.  I was able to select my seats (2nd and 3rd row), which offered a great view of the game for a decent price ($32 on Friday, $40 on Saturday).  Those prices include the ridiculous "convenience" fees ($5 per ticket plus another $8 for the transaction) which could only be avoided by purchasing the tickets at the stadium ticket office.  Apparently these fees are also dynamic pricing because I just checked about buying Marlins/Mets tickets and those fees were $3/ticket and $6 addition, but Phillies/Mets and other Braves/Mets have the fees I paid.
   
     
   
   
3. Food.  The food selections were great, but the lines were very long.  I went with the BBQ joint (highly recommended) and the burrito place (burrito not recommended / nachos were fine).  Both waits were too long (missed at least an inning), but I probably would have missed the entire game waiting for Shake Shack.  The prices were not unreasonable especially given that NYC prices for food and drinks in general are exceptionally high.  My seats for both games were in the outfield, so I did not look for the typical baseball food stands, but I assume those lines would have been somewhat shorter. 
4. Aaron Harang is having a great season.  Wow we almost saw a no-hitter.  Harang was clearly struggling and exhausted in the 7th, but the first six innings were dominant. 
5. Bartolo Colon at-bats should all be nationally televised.  Seeing this at-bat live was worth the price of admission:
   
6. Justin Upton throwing with the Mets ball-boy was the most entertaining thing of the weekend.  The Mets sent out a ballboy to throw with Justin every inning.  This poor kid is just completely unathletic.  He was left-handed, but he threw as if he was really right-handed and was just beginning to throw with his left.  At least 30% of his throws did not travel the 90 feet needed to reach Justin.  Right before the inning began, the kid would attempt to catch a lobbed throw from BJ.  He caught approximately 40% of them.  At first Justin looked a little annoyed.  By the 4th inning, he was rifling balls back at the kid.  By the 7th, Justin just waived him off.  I am not sure if the Mets were trolling Justin, but if they were, it was an excellent prank.  These are the little types of advantages that home ballparks can give a team that go completely unnoticed but could legitimately affect a game because Justin was visibly affected by this kid. 
   
7. David Wright has awesome walk-up music.  Most of the Mets have terrible or generic music.  Boring and stuff.  David Wright comes up to You Got It (The Right Stuff) by New Kids on the Block. I'm not sure if this is new or if he has been doing it for years, but it was awesome.   
8. B.J. Upton catching fly balls gives me nightmares.  He wildly missed that one pop-up that fortunately was still an easy out at second, but he seemed to misjudge every single ball off the bat.  He is ridiculously fast and able to catch-up to his misreads, but his first step and initial reactions seemed to be delayed or wrong.  Yes I miss the original death to flying things, Andruw Jones.
9. Dan Uggla's fielding is an atrocity.  I'm sure that pop-up that he dropped was knuckling in the wind or something, but good grief that was ugly.
10. Carpenter, Walden, and Kimbrel throw really hard. The ball just pops out of their hands.  I was impressed.
11. Citi Field is a large ballpark.  I can't believe we hit two homers in that series.  I also can't believe that the park is still that large after bringing the fences in.  Freeman's home run was annihilated, but barely cleared the fence.  Justin's probably should have been caught.  There were a lot of other fly balls that were caught that I thought had a chance to leave the park.  The Mets don't appear to be developing a team strategy around their ballpark (Granderson is a slow and terrible outfielder), but I think the same benefits of pitching in Petco could apply to pitching in Citi and the Mets would be wise to target pitchers with flyball tendencies. 

Aaron Harang!!

That was the most miserable baseball game I have ever attended. But Aaron Harang was incredible. Smoke and mirrors and outs. So grateful to have been on hand to watch that performance.

Pictures, analysis, and more to come after tomorrow night's game. 

ESPN Power Rankings - April 14, 2014 - Braves Ranked 7th

ESPN.com posted this week's Power Rankings. As per usual, the obvious dislike of the Braves by ESPN is obvious. This season the Braves have swept the GNATS but of course they're ranked higher. Thoughts?

Why "Steve Avery"

Since we have started this blog, the question that I have been asked the most is "Why Steve Avery?"

I thought it was appropriate to wait until today for this post because it is Steve Avery's birthday!  Happy 44th Birthday Steve!

I was fortunate enough to become interested in the Braves in 1991. 

First Week Review

Bobby Cox always said that winning series is what matters.  Teams can't count on winning every game or going on 20-game winning streaks, but playoff teams find ways to win series.  The Braves won their first two series against the Brewers (who just swept the defending champs) and the Nationals (once again the media darling / NL East favorite).  With that in mind, the first week was a success.  But the Braves are once again walking a razor-thin edge.

Former Rays: Caveat Emptor

For the third time in four games, the Braves won today despite B.J. Upton.  The $75.25 million center fielder went 0 for 4, as he did in the first two games of the young season.  Although Bossman’s hit on Wednesday ensured that he will not go 0 for 2014, that is the lone bright spot for the man who received the largest free agent contract in the history of baseball’s longest continuously operating franchise.

I’m not yet ready to give up on Upton.  Were I more convinced that Jordan Schafer is an everyday player, I might feel differently.  But I am not, and so I don’t.  Nonetheless, I have significant doubts as to whether, at the end of the 2017 season, when the Braves dim the lights of the new Cobb County stadium for the last time and move the Upton contract off the books, the organization will consider the money in Upton’s pockets $75.25 million well-spent.

Happy Opening Day

I'm not sure why this isn't a national holiday. I think we should move Opening Day up one week and just have a five day weekend with the NCAA tourney and opening day.

Go Braves. First of many Opening Day starts for Julio. 

Re-previewing the Rotation / Analyzing Ervin

Since I wrote my season preview for the rotation, the sky has been falling.  Kris Medlen had Tommy John surgery (again).  Brandon Beachy had Tommy John surgery (again).  Freddy Garcia was released.  Ervin Santana was signed.

Teheran has been named the Opening Day starter, basically by default.  The Braves have gone from hoping for strong follow-up seasons from Teheran and Minor to needing strong seasons.  Alex Wood has gone from candidate for the #5 spot to holding the third/fourth starter spot while Minor is on the DL.  David Hale stands alone as the fourth starter.

Starter #3: Ervin Santana

Previewing the 2014 Season - Outfield

The final installment of my season preview series.

Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
Infield 

Left Field: Justin Upton
Welcome to Atlanta Mr. Upton.  That's what we all said during the first month of 2013. Justin Upton looked like a man on a mission, like the second coming of Hank Aaron, and like a cornerstone to the franchise.  His first 26 games saw a triple slash of .298/.402/.734 with 12 home runs.  He only hit 15 homers the rest of the season and was basically an average hitter.  Like just about everyone else in the lineup, Justin struck out a lot.  Exactly 25% of the time in fact, which was an unfortunate return to the same K-rates as he saw in his first four seasons in the bigs and a regression from his last two seasons in Arizona which saw Justin post K-rates under 20%.  Despite the obvious monthly roller coaster of 2013, Justin has been wildly consistent and wildly inconsistent in his major league career. 

A Time for General Managerial-Restraint

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that the Braves are considering signing the recently available Scott Baker and/or Erik Bedard.  Notably, Rosenthal tweeted this rumor after the Braves had already sunk precious resources into the epitome of mediocrity that is Aaron Harang. 

I’m not going to debate my fellow contributor about the merits of the Harang signing.  I will concede that Harang starting the fourth game of the season is a preferable outcome to Dan Uggla, Phil Niekro, or Kasim Reed pitching the fourth game of the season.  Whether I would have signed Harang instead of seeing what I had with Schlosser, or even, and I know this is a wild idea, Freddy Garcia, is beside the point.

Starting pitchers everywhere

This happened.

Aaron Harang?!? Really Braves?!? Then I looked at the statistics from even his terrible 2013, and really I think this is a fine move by the Braves. To be honest, there is probably at least a 30% chance that Harang pitches better than Big Erv this year. 

I have been working on a re-preview of the rotation and honestly was wondering who the heck was going to start the fourth game of the season (after Teheran, Wood, and Hale). Now we know. Frankly after the tire fire that was this spring training, the Braves could do worse than Aaron Harang. 

Previewing the 2014 Season - Infield

Part four of my season preview series.

Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers

First Base - Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman had a breakout season in 2013 (.319/.396/.501) and was handsomely rewarded for it.  Or that's the storyline.  It wasn't really a breakout season though.  It was basically the same season that he posted in 2012.  The only thing that changed was BABIP.  This is actually a great thing and probably why the Braves felt comfortable locking up Captain Hugs forever.  In 2014, Freddie won't hit .319, he probably won't get on base 40% of the time, but he still will be the Braves' best offensive weapon and will begin to earn his massive deal.  [Note: this is probably my favorite thing that happened this off season.]

Previewing the 2014 Season - Catchers

For the next installment of my future award winning preview of the Braves' 2014 season, it's time to look at the catchers. I'm choosing to separate the catchers because I have a lot to say about this position and think that this is the most intriguing position on the team.

Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen

First, I want to wish Brian McCann all of the luck and success in the world in his new digs in New York.  I hate seeing him leave, but I think it was the right decision for all parties involved (although if I knew we had $14 million dollars to just throw at league average (hopefully) pitchers, I might have changed my tune).  Brian McCann was already a rich man.  Now he is a VERY rich man.  The Yankees will certainly benefit from his great left-handed power, superb on-base skills, and excellent pitch framing abilities.  But the Braves can't afford a 5 year, $85 million contract for an over-30 catcher, so it was time to let him go and accept the first-round draft pick as compensation.  Thank you Brian McCann for 9 wonderful years in Atlanta.  You will be missed.

The candidates to replace Brian are Evan Gattis, Ryan Doumit, Gerald Laird, Christian Bethancourt, and newly acquired Cuban free agent Yenier Bello.

Paying for Durability

Today, the Atlanta Braves signed a top-of-the-rotation, veteran pitcher to shore up a roster reeling from spring injuries.

After an offseason that saw the Braves lock up their core of young talent, the Braves have suffered a disastrous spring.  Kris Medlen, previously the presumptive opening day starter, is likely facing a second Tommy John Surgery that could leave his career in jeopardy.  Mike Minor, the presumptive number two, has yet to make a spring training start due to shoulder soreness.  Brandon Beachy left Monday's spring training game against the Phillies due to tightness around his surgically repaired elbow.  The Braves signed Gavin Floyd, who had Tommy John surgery last season, last December.  The Braves hope Floyd will be ready by early May.

All injuries considered, the Braves opening week rotation likely consisted of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia, and a choose your own adventure, with the back end of the rotation filled by starters with minimal or no major league experience.

Enter Santana.  In four of the past six seasons, Ervin Santana has posted a sub-4.00 ERA.  More importantly, with Santana, the Braves get durability.  Excluding his rookie year, Santana has reached 200 innings in five of eight seasons.  That said, Santana relies almost exclusively on his slider and fastball.  His fastball generally clocks in the low 90's, and when it dips below 92, he struggles.

Santana has had strong statistical seasons, and he's won at least 16 games three times in his nine seasons.  It's fairly safe to say the Braves know what they're getting with Santana, and in a spring of chaos and unpredictability, Frank Wren showed us he believes peace of mind is worth $14 million.

Braves SIGN Ervin Santana, 1yr - 14.1 Million

I woke up this morning to several alerts from MLB and ESPN letting me know that the Braves have indeed gone ahead and signed Ervin Santana. Was I shocked? Yes. Was I disappointed? No. What more could I have expected with 20 days left to Opening Day? A Jeff Samardzija or David Price desperation trade? That would have been a better headline to wake up to but then again can we afford to give up the farm?

Now after a few hours of the Santana acquisition settling in, it's not THAT bad of a deal. Especially considering the situation the Braves are in. Let's take a look at some of Santana's line from 2013: 

(9-10) with a 3.24 ERA, 211 IP, and 161 Ks

Compared to David Price:

(10-8) with a 3.33 ERA, 186.2 IP, and 151 Ks

Compared to Jeff Samardzija:

(8-13) with a 4.34 ERA, 213.2 IP and 214 Ks 

I completely understand that I'm comparing apples to oranges, BUT I am really only comparing what was out there for the Braves to be able to make a move for. I believe the price tag on Santana is higher than what I would have preferred, but Santana will be pitching for a mega contract next season, and we didn't have to give anything up for him. 

Signing Grade: B+

Also, hats off to the Braves' front office. Going over the budget and signing a pitcher shows only that the Braves are not rebuilding an organization but actually setting up for a dynasty. 

Previewing the 2014 Season - Bullpen

For the next edition of my preview series, I am taking a look at the bullpen.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Not too much to be said here (although Kimbrel's Nintendo-game career statistics are just begging for a follow-up post).  He's the best closer in baseball.  Absolutely dominant.  Also the longest tenured closer in baseball.  And now a very rich man.  In a vacuum I would have argued that the Kimbrel money would have been better spent on Heyward or Minor or David Price, but the Braves appeared to be set on keeping Kimbrel for several years and an extension was the only realistic option for the Braves (Kimbrel's projected arbitration numbers could have been record-breaking).  Four years and $42 million with a $13M team option for the fifth year is about as reasonable and discounted a price as the Braves were likely to get, and Craig is now financially secure for the rest of his life.

The only thing to discuss for Kimbrel is how Fredi G uses him.  I would LOVE to see Kimbrel used in (a) longer stints and (b) in more high leverage situations.  Now that he is locked up forever, there should be no concern from the Kimbrel camp about whether the Braves are hurting his future value, etc etc.  Read this wonderful piece by the great Jonah Keri.  For his career, Kimbrel has been used in "low leverage" situations about 40% of the time.  This is absurd.  I will probably write a 3,000-word essay on this topic later, but the summary is Kimbrel's usage should now be tied to actually trying to maximize the amount of games the Braves win.  If you think Kimbrel can't pitch multiple innings or can't come in earlier in the game but when it is actually on the line, (a) you are wrong and (b) you are really really wrong.  Kimbrel came up through the farm system throwing multiple innings and even pitched multiple innings for the brief period of time that Bobby Cox decided when to let him pitch (granted Kimbrel was setting up the great Billy Wagner).  I'm sure I will continue this rant the next time that I'm reminded of this.

Please do not sign Ervin Santana (Updated)

Just a modest request here Frank Wren. I realize Ervin Santana was a good pitcher last year. I realize that we have no idea who will be in the rotation if Medlen and Beachy are out indefinitely. Santana will likely cost around $14M, costing the Braves their first round draft pick and inevitably hindering the Braves from making any other in-season acquisitions, plus he likely will require that his new team not give him a qualifying offer next year. So again Frank Wren, please pass on Ervin Santana.

[UPDATE: Frank Wren did not listen to my advice.]

Previewing the 2014 Season - Rotation

This is the first in a series of previews of the upcoming season.  Of course, every blog and news entity is writing one of these pieces right now, but I wanted to add my take on the upcoming season and include some predictions.

Number One Starter: Kris Medlen, RHP
Kris Medlen is the old guard of this rotation.  He is the nominal ace, although I believe that Minor and Teheran equaled or surpassed him in 2013.  2012 was Medlen's breakout year, when he strapped on Greg Maddux's Superman cape and was the best pitcher in baseball over the final two months of the season.  Medlen came out of the gate slow in 2013, posting ERAs north of 3 and FIPs north of 4 in the first two months of the season.  This was due in large part to his impeccable command slipping in the early months.  He issued 9 walks (in 30 innings) in March/April and 15 (in 34 innings!) walks in May.  To put that in perspective, Medlen issued 23 walks in 138 innings in 2012 and only 15 walks in June through August of 2013.  Once the command returned to form, Medlen was his usual dominant self (except for a rough July).  Medlen in September 2013 looked a lot like Medlen in September 2012, dominating hitters in virtually every category (including a clean 1.00 ERA) and earning the Game 1 start in the NLDS against the Dodgers.  Ultimately a repeat of 2013's total statistics (31 starts, 197 IP, 7.17 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 45% GB rate) seems fairly safe to predict for Medlen.  [Update: Medlen left Sunday's game with a "strained right forearm."  I'm trying to remain optimistic until we hear more.]

Hello Blog World

Hello blog world.

Over the next few weeks, this blog will be going through its own Spring Training as our beloved hometown team (and the original "America's Team") go through theirs.  We will post about the upcoming season, front office moves, trade and free agency rumors, all of the recent contract extensions, the move to Cobb County, the farm system, and hopefully much more.

This is something we each have wanted to get involved with for a long time, and quite frankly, I think we envision this as just an area where we can have an outlet that synthesizes what used to be the numerous emails, texts, and social media posts that we would send each other.

Right now I am working on the site's layout and format.  There will be numerous changes over the next few weeks as we get our feet wet.  For now, welcome and GO BRAVES /> />