Go Braves. First of many Opening Day starts for Julio.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Happy Opening Day
I'm not sure why this isn't a national holiday. I think we should move Opening Day up one week and just have a five day weekend with the NCAA tourney and opening day.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Re-previewing the Rotation / Analyzing Ervin
Since I wrote my season preview for the rotation, the sky has been falling. Kris Medlen had Tommy John surgery (again). Brandon Beachy had Tommy John surgery (again). Freddy Garcia was released. Ervin Santana was signed.
Teheran has been named the Opening Day starter, basically by default. The Braves have gone from hoping for strong follow-up seasons from Teheran and Minor to needing strong seasons. Alex Wood has gone from candidate for the #5 spot to holding the third/fourth starter spot while Minor is on the DL. David Hale stands alone as the fourth starter.
Starter #3: Ervin Santana
Teheran has been named the Opening Day starter, basically by default. The Braves have gone from hoping for strong follow-up seasons from Teheran and Minor to needing strong seasons. Alex Wood has gone from candidate for the #5 spot to holding the third/fourth starter spot while Minor is on the DL. David Hale stands alone as the fourth starter.
Starter #3: Ervin Santana
Friday, March 28, 2014
Previewing the 2014 Season - Outfield
The final installment of my season preview series.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
Infield
Left Field: Justin Upton
Welcome to Atlanta Mr. Upton. That's what we all said during the first month of 2013. Justin Upton looked like a man on a mission, like the second coming of Hank Aaron, and like a cornerstone to the franchise. His first 26 games saw a triple slash of .298/.402/.734 with 12 home runs. He only hit 15 homers the rest of the season and was basically an average hitter. Like just about everyone else in the lineup, Justin struck out a lot. Exactly 25% of the time in fact, which was an unfortunate return to the same K-rates as he saw in his first four seasons in the bigs and a regression from his last two seasons in Arizona which saw Justin post K-rates under 20%. Despite the obvious monthly roller coaster of 2013, Justin has been wildly consistent and wildly inconsistent in his major league career.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
Infield
Left Field: Justin Upton
Welcome to Atlanta Mr. Upton. That's what we all said during the first month of 2013. Justin Upton looked like a man on a mission, like the second coming of Hank Aaron, and like a cornerstone to the franchise. His first 26 games saw a triple slash of .298/.402/.734 with 12 home runs. He only hit 15 homers the rest of the season and was basically an average hitter. Like just about everyone else in the lineup, Justin struck out a lot. Exactly 25% of the time in fact, which was an unfortunate return to the same K-rates as he saw in his first four seasons in the bigs and a regression from his last two seasons in Arizona which saw Justin post K-rates under 20%. Despite the obvious monthly roller coaster of 2013, Justin has been wildly consistent and wildly inconsistent in his major league career.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
A Time for General Managerial-Restraint
Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that the
Braves are considering signing the recently available Scott Baker and/or Erik
Bedard. Notably, Rosenthal tweeted this
rumor after the Braves had already sunk precious resources into the epitome of
mediocrity that is Aaron Harang.
I’m not going to debate my fellow contributor about the
merits of the Harang signing. I will
concede that Harang starting the fourth game of the season is a preferable
outcome to Dan Uggla, Phil Niekro, or Kasim Reed pitching the fourth game of
the season. Whether I would have signed
Harang instead of seeing what I had with Schlosser, or even, and I know this is
a wild idea, Freddy Garcia, is beside the point.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Starting pitchers everywhere
This happened.
Aaron Harang?!? Really Braves?!? Then I looked at the statistics from even his terrible 2013, and really I think this is a fine move by the Braves. To be honest, there is probably at least a 30% chance that Harang pitches better than Big Erv this year.
I have been working on a re-preview of the rotation and honestly was wondering who the heck was going to start the fourth game of the season (after Teheran, Wood, and Hale). Now we know. Frankly after the tire fire that was this spring training, the Braves could do worse than Aaron Harang.
Previewing the 2014 Season - Infield
Part four of my season preview series.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
First Base - Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman had a breakout season in 2013 (.319/.396/.501) and was handsomely rewarded for it. Or that's the storyline. It wasn't really a breakout season though. It was basically the same season that he posted in 2012. The only thing that changed was BABIP. This is actually a great thing and probably why the Braves felt comfortable locking up Captain Hugs forever. In 2014, Freddie won't hit .319, he probably won't get on base 40% of the time, but he still will be the Braves' best offensive weapon and will begin to earn his massive deal. [Note: this is probably my favorite thing that happened this off season.]
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
Catchers
First Base - Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman had a breakout season in 2013 (.319/.396/.501) and was handsomely rewarded for it. Or that's the storyline. It wasn't really a breakout season though. It was basically the same season that he posted in 2012. The only thing that changed was BABIP. This is actually a great thing and probably why the Braves felt comfortable locking up Captain Hugs forever. In 2014, Freddie won't hit .319, he probably won't get on base 40% of the time, but he still will be the Braves' best offensive weapon and will begin to earn his massive deal. [Note: this is probably my favorite thing that happened this off season.]
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Previewing the 2014 Season - Catchers
For the next installment of my future award winning preview of the Braves' 2014 season, it's time to look at the catchers. I'm choosing to separate the catchers because I have a lot to say about this position and think that this is the most intriguing position on the team.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
First, I want to wish Brian McCann all of the luck and success in the world in his new digs in New York. I hate seeing him leave, but I think it was the right decision for all parties involved (although if I knew we had $14 million dollars to just throw at league average (hopefully) pitchers, I might have changed my tune). Brian McCann was already a rich man. Now he is a VERY rich man. The Yankees will certainly benefit from his great left-handed power, superb on-base skills, and excellent pitch framing abilities. But the Braves can't afford a 5 year, $85 million contract for an over-30 catcher, so it was time to let him go and accept the first-round draft pick as compensation. Thank you Brian McCann for 9 wonderful years in Atlanta. You will be missed.
The candidates to replace Brian are Evan Gattis, Ryan Doumit, Gerald Laird, Christian Bethancourt, and newly acquired Cuban free agent Yenier Bello.
Prior previews:
Rotation
Bullpen
First, I want to wish Brian McCann all of the luck and success in the world in his new digs in New York. I hate seeing him leave, but I think it was the right decision for all parties involved (although if I knew we had $14 million dollars to just throw at league average (hopefully) pitchers, I might have changed my tune). Brian McCann was already a rich man. Now he is a VERY rich man. The Yankees will certainly benefit from his great left-handed power, superb on-base skills, and excellent pitch framing abilities. But the Braves can't afford a 5 year, $85 million contract for an over-30 catcher, so it was time to let him go and accept the first-round draft pick as compensation. Thank you Brian McCann for 9 wonderful years in Atlanta. You will be missed.
The candidates to replace Brian are Evan Gattis, Ryan Doumit, Gerald Laird, Christian Bethancourt, and newly acquired Cuban free agent Yenier Bello.
Paying for Durability
Today, the Atlanta Braves signed a top-of-the-rotation, veteran pitcher to shore up a roster reeling from spring injuries.
After an offseason that saw the Braves lock up their core of young talent, the Braves have suffered a disastrous spring. Kris Medlen, previously the presumptive opening day starter, is likely facing a second Tommy John Surgery that could leave his career in jeopardy. Mike Minor, the presumptive number two, has yet to make a spring training start due to shoulder soreness. Brandon Beachy left Monday's spring training game against the Phillies due to tightness around his surgically repaired elbow. The Braves signed Gavin Floyd, who had Tommy John surgery last season, last December. The Braves hope Floyd will be ready by early May.
All injuries considered, the Braves opening week rotation likely consisted of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia, and a choose your own adventure, with the back end of the rotation filled by starters with minimal or no major league experience.
Enter Santana. In four of the past six seasons, Ervin Santana has posted a sub-4.00 ERA. More importantly, with Santana, the Braves get durability. Excluding his rookie year, Santana has reached 200 innings in five of eight seasons. That said, Santana relies almost exclusively on his slider and fastball. His fastball generally clocks in the low 90's, and when it dips below 92, he struggles.
Santana has had strong statistical seasons, and he's won at least 16 games three times in his nine seasons. It's fairly safe to say the Braves know what they're getting with Santana, and in a spring of chaos and unpredictability, Frank Wren showed us he believes peace of mind is worth $14 million.
After an offseason that saw the Braves lock up their core of young talent, the Braves have suffered a disastrous spring. Kris Medlen, previously the presumptive opening day starter, is likely facing a second Tommy John Surgery that could leave his career in jeopardy. Mike Minor, the presumptive number two, has yet to make a spring training start due to shoulder soreness. Brandon Beachy left Monday's spring training game against the Phillies due to tightness around his surgically repaired elbow. The Braves signed Gavin Floyd, who had Tommy John surgery last season, last December. The Braves hope Floyd will be ready by early May.
All injuries considered, the Braves opening week rotation likely consisted of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia, and a choose your own adventure, with the back end of the rotation filled by starters with minimal or no major league experience.
Enter Santana. In four of the past six seasons, Ervin Santana has posted a sub-4.00 ERA. More importantly, with Santana, the Braves get durability. Excluding his rookie year, Santana has reached 200 innings in five of eight seasons. That said, Santana relies almost exclusively on his slider and fastball. His fastball generally clocks in the low 90's, and when it dips below 92, he struggles.
Santana has had strong statistical seasons, and he's won at least 16 games three times in his nine seasons. It's fairly safe to say the Braves know what they're getting with Santana, and in a spring of chaos and unpredictability, Frank Wren showed us he believes peace of mind is worth $14 million.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Braves SIGN Ervin Santana, 1yr - 14.1 Million
I woke up this morning to several alerts from MLB and ESPN letting me know that the Braves have indeed gone ahead and signed Ervin Santana. Was I shocked? Yes. Was I disappointed? No. What more could I have expected with 20 days left to Opening Day? A Jeff Samardzija or David Price desperation trade? That would have been a better headline to wake up to but then again can we afford to give up the farm?
Now after a few hours of the Santana acquisition settling in, it's not THAT bad of a deal. Especially considering the situation the Braves are in. Let's take a look at some of Santana's line from 2013:
(9-10) with a 3.24 ERA, 211 IP, and 161 Ks
Compared to David Price:
(10-8) with a 3.33 ERA, 186.2 IP, and 151 Ks
Compared to Jeff Samardzija:
(8-13) with a 4.34 ERA, 213.2 IP and 214 Ks
I completely understand that I'm comparing apples to oranges, BUT I am really only comparing what was out there for the Braves to be able to make a move for. I believe the price tag on Santana is higher than what I would have preferred, but Santana will be pitching for a mega contract next season, and we didn't have to give anything up for him.
Signing Grade: B+
Also, hats off to the Braves' front office. Going over the budget and signing a pitcher shows only that the Braves are not rebuilding an organization but actually setting up for a dynasty.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Previewing the 2014 Season - Bullpen
For the next edition of my preview series, I am taking a look at the bullpen.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Not too much to be said here (although Kimbrel's Nintendo-game career statistics are just begging for a follow-up post). He's the best closer in baseball. Absolutely dominant. Also the longest tenured closer in baseball. And now a very rich man. In a vacuum I would have argued that the Kimbrel money would have been better spent on Heyward or Minor or David Price, but the Braves appeared to be set on keeping Kimbrel for several years and an extension was the only realistic option for the Braves (Kimbrel's projected arbitration numbers could have been record-breaking). Four years and $42 million with a $13M team option for the fifth year is about as reasonable and discounted a price as the Braves were likely to get, and Craig is now financially secure for the rest of his life.
The only thing to discuss for Kimbrel is how Fredi G uses him. I would LOVE to see Kimbrel used in (a) longer stints and (b) in more high leverage situations. Now that he is locked up forever, there should be no concern from the Kimbrel camp about whether the Braves are hurting his future value, etc etc. Read this wonderful piece by the great Jonah Keri. For his career, Kimbrel has been used in "low leverage" situations about 40% of the time. This is absurd. I will probably write a 3,000-word essay on this topic later, but the summary is Kimbrel's usage should now be tied to actually trying to maximize the amount of games the Braves win. If you think Kimbrel can't pitch multiple innings or can't come in earlier in the game but when it is actually on the line, (a) you are wrong and (b) you are really really wrong. Kimbrel came up through the farm system throwing multiple innings and even pitched multiple innings for the brief period of time that Bobby Cox decided when to let him pitch (granted Kimbrel was setting up the great Billy Wagner). I'm sure I will continue this rant the next time that I'm reminded of this.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Not too much to be said here (although Kimbrel's Nintendo-game career statistics are just begging for a follow-up post). He's the best closer in baseball. Absolutely dominant. Also the longest tenured closer in baseball. And now a very rich man. In a vacuum I would have argued that the Kimbrel money would have been better spent on Heyward or Minor or David Price, but the Braves appeared to be set on keeping Kimbrel for several years and an extension was the only realistic option for the Braves (Kimbrel's projected arbitration numbers could have been record-breaking). Four years and $42 million with a $13M team option for the fifth year is about as reasonable and discounted a price as the Braves were likely to get, and Craig is now financially secure for the rest of his life.
The only thing to discuss for Kimbrel is how Fredi G uses him. I would LOVE to see Kimbrel used in (a) longer stints and (b) in more high leverage situations. Now that he is locked up forever, there should be no concern from the Kimbrel camp about whether the Braves are hurting his future value, etc etc. Read this wonderful piece by the great Jonah Keri. For his career, Kimbrel has been used in "low leverage" situations about 40% of the time. This is absurd. I will probably write a 3,000-word essay on this topic later, but the summary is Kimbrel's usage should now be tied to actually trying to maximize the amount of games the Braves win. If you think Kimbrel can't pitch multiple innings or can't come in earlier in the game but when it is actually on the line, (a) you are wrong and (b) you are really really wrong. Kimbrel came up through the farm system throwing multiple innings and even pitched multiple innings for the brief period of time that Bobby Cox decided when to let him pitch (granted Kimbrel was setting up the great Billy Wagner). I'm sure I will continue this rant the next time that I'm reminded of this.
Please do not sign Ervin Santana (Updated)
Just a modest request here Frank Wren. I realize Ervin Santana was a good pitcher last year. I realize that we have no idea who will be in the rotation if Medlen and Beachy are out indefinitely. Santana will likely cost around $14M, costing the Braves their first round draft pick and inevitably hindering the Braves from making any other in-season acquisitions, plus he likely will require that his new team not give him a qualifying offer next year. So again Frank Wren, please pass on Ervin Santana.
[UPDATE: Frank Wren did not listen to my advice.]
[UPDATE: Frank Wren did not listen to my advice.]
Monday, March 10, 2014
Previewing the 2014 Season - Rotation
This is the first in a series of previews of the upcoming season. Of course, every blog and news entity is writing one of these pieces right now, but I wanted to add my take on the upcoming season and include some predictions.
Number One Starter: Kris Medlen, RHP
Kris Medlen is the old guard of this rotation. He is the nominal ace, although I believe that Minor and Teheran equaled or surpassed him in 2013. 2012 was Medlen's breakout year, when he strapped on Greg Maddux's Superman cape and was the best pitcher in baseball over the final two months of the season. Medlen came out of the gate slow in 2013, posting ERAs north of 3 and FIPs north of 4 in the first two months of the season. This was due in large part to his impeccable command slipping in the early months. He issued 9 walks (in 30 innings) in March/April and 15 (in 34 innings!) walks in May. To put that in perspective, Medlen issued 23 walks in 138 innings in 2012 and only 15 walks in June through August of 2013. Once the command returned to form, Medlen was his usual dominant self (except for a rough July). Medlen in September 2013 looked a lot like Medlen in September 2012, dominating hitters in virtually every category (including a clean 1.00 ERA) and earning the Game 1 start in the NLDS against the Dodgers. Ultimately a repeat of 2013's total statistics (31 starts, 197 IP, 7.17 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 45% GB rate) seems fairly safe to predict for Medlen. [Update: Medlen left Sunday's game with a "strained right forearm." I'm trying to remain optimistic until we hear more.]
Number One Starter: Kris Medlen, RHP
Kris Medlen is the old guard of this rotation. He is the nominal ace, although I believe that Minor and Teheran equaled or surpassed him in 2013. 2012 was Medlen's breakout year, when he strapped on Greg Maddux's Superman cape and was the best pitcher in baseball over the final two months of the season. Medlen came out of the gate slow in 2013, posting ERAs north of 3 and FIPs north of 4 in the first two months of the season. This was due in large part to his impeccable command slipping in the early months. He issued 9 walks (in 30 innings) in March/April and 15 (in 34 innings!) walks in May. To put that in perspective, Medlen issued 23 walks in 138 innings in 2012 and only 15 walks in June through August of 2013. Once the command returned to form, Medlen was his usual dominant self (except for a rough July). Medlen in September 2013 looked a lot like Medlen in September 2012, dominating hitters in virtually every category (including a clean 1.00 ERA) and earning the Game 1 start in the NLDS against the Dodgers. Ultimately a repeat of 2013's total statistics (31 starts, 197 IP, 7.17 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 45% GB rate) seems fairly safe to predict for Medlen. [Update: Medlen left Sunday's game with a "strained right forearm." I'm trying to remain optimistic until we hear more.]
Friday, March 7, 2014
Hello Blog World
Hello blog world.
Over the next few weeks, this blog will be going through its own Spring Training as our beloved hometown team (and the original "America's Team") go through theirs. We will post about the upcoming season, front office moves, trade and free agency rumors, all of the recent contract extensions, the move to Cobb County, the farm system, and hopefully much more.
This is something we each have wanted to get involved with for a long time, and quite frankly, I think we envision this as just an area where we can have an outlet that synthesizes what used to be the numerous emails, texts, and social media posts that we would send each other.
Right now I am working on the site's layout and format. There will be numerous changes over the next few weeks as we get our feet wet. For now, welcome and GO BRAVES /> />
Over the next few weeks, this blog will be going through its own Spring Training as our beloved hometown team (and the original "America's Team") go through theirs. We will post about the upcoming season, front office moves, trade and free agency rumors, all of the recent contract extensions, the move to Cobb County, the farm system, and hopefully much more.
This is something we each have wanted to get involved with for a long time, and quite frankly, I think we envision this as just an area where we can have an outlet that synthesizes what used to be the numerous emails, texts, and social media posts that we would send each other.
Right now I am working on the site's layout and format. There will be numerous changes over the next few weeks as we get our feet wet. For now, welcome and GO BRAVES /> />
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