The Ghost of Bret Boone

                On November 10, 1998, John Schuerholz pulled off a trade that continues to haunt the Braves to this day.  No, none of the players the Braves gave up went on to have Hall of Fame careers elsewhere.  In fact, neither Rob Bell, Denny Neagle, nor Michael Tucker did much of anything after leaving Atlanta.  And, the package the Braves got in return arguably helped them to another World Series (and another World Series loss to the Yankees).  Nevertheless, that deal, made now sixteen years ago reflected a shift in how the Braves would build their lineup going forward—and it has not proven to be a shift for the better.

Julio Teheran and even more questionable bullpen decisions

Julio Teheran was allowed to throw 128 pitches in a complete game shutout last night.  I am not sure how I feel about this right now, but the game was virtually over (5-0 after 8 innings is basically 99.8% over).  There have been a slew of pitcher injuries recently, and I am terrified that our 23-year-old phenom is next.  On the other hand, Teheran has built up the arm strength to throw over 120 pitches and as Carlos Rodon (potential #1 overall pick this year) has reminded us, the only way to know how you perform in those situations is to get there in game situations.

I have no idea what the right decision is here, but I am concerned.

Another Cash Influx for the Braves

According to the AJC, the Braves have renegotiated their TV deal.  The Braves were notorious as one of the teams with the worst deals in baseball. The term of the old deal went through 2027 and was signed in 2007 just before the market for local television rights deals skyrocketed.

The only term of this new deal that is known is that the Braves expect to receive $500 million over the life of the deal. That is not chump change and apparently is a significant increase over the old deal, but the true impact of the deal (such as increased yearly revenue, if it is performance/ratings based, and the length of deal). 

Coupled with the new stadium deal (which we all hate but not for financial benefits to the Braves), the Braves have gone from a small market team to an upper-mid market team which is where they should be. The slew of extensions and the Ervin Santana deal are the first results of the new financial reality for the Braves and hopefully there is more to come. Personally I would love to see the Braves go wild during this amateur international signing period, blow past their slot, and just sign everyone they think is worthy. It's probably better for another post, but the weak penalties for blowing international  probably will not last much longer so the Braves should take advantage while they have the opportunity.

Next up for the Braves TV deal: bring back Boog Sciambi!!

Injuries - The New Market Inefficiency

I was planning on doing a series of posts about all of the new potential "Moneyball" inefficiencies that baseball teams could capitalize on.  At some point I still plan on writing about these (several of which are already in use) such as nutrition for minor league players, efficient roster construction, platoons, defensive shifts, and bullpen usage.

However there is one inefficiency that stands out.  In light of Jose Fernandez's injury and the slew of other injuries that have occurred recently, the most obvious inefficiency in baseball is injury prevention, specifically with pitchers.  Jose Fernandez.  Jameson Taillon.  Matt Moore.  Patrick Corbin.  Jarrod Parker.  Brandon Beachy.  Kris Medlen.  That's a partial list of pitchers to undergo TJ surgery in 2014!  (Update: add Martin Perez to the list. Sigh.). Dylan Bundy, Matt Harvey, Lucas Giolito, Neftali Feliz, Arodys Vizcaino, Stephen Strasburg, Brett Anderson, and Adam Wainwright all have also undergone TJ surgery since the end of the 2010 season  (Note: I didn't double-check this, but I believe my second list includes only pitchers who were once ranked their organization's best player.). 

The baseball world needs to fix this problem.  Teams do not have an incentive to share their advances in biomechanics with the rest of the world, but the first team to even remotely figure out how to prevent UCL injuries will reap a benefit many magnitudes greater than the original on-base percentage/don't-make-outs revolution that was the original "Moneyball."

Bad Bullpen Decisions Everywhere

As I'm typing, the Braves have their first comfortable lead in a long time. The bats were alive for the first time in weeks, including strong at-bats from virtually everyone who stepped in. With that in mind I think tonight is a perfect opportunity to discuss something I have intended to write about for a while: bullpen usage.  Specifically each team made a questionable move that may not have effected the outcome of tonight's game but could prove to be problematic down the road. 

Freddie Freeman - Not Just a Hug-Machine

Apparently our favorite ginger found his jiggle juice at a wedding recently, and the results are fantastic:

Jose Fernandez

Very sad non-Braves news today. Marlins phenom Jose Fernandez appears to be headed towards Tommy John surgery. After losing Medlen, Beachy, and Gearrin for the year, Braves fans certainly can feel sympathy for those few Miami fans. 

This is also sad news for baseball in general. Jose Fernandez was the best young pitcher in baseball. Period. His rookie season, a jump straight from High A to the majors, was outstanding. His sophomore year had been even better. A ridiculous strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate. 

It's probably no surprise to anyone reading this to know that I watch a lot of baseball games. I gravitate towards the best starting pitchers for non-Braves games. (Spoiler alert for those that know me) Zack Greinke is my #1. My second favorite pitcher to watch is Jose Fernandez. If I had the magic power to prevent one pitcher from tearing his UCL who wasn't a member of the Atlanta Braves, Jose Fernandez would be my only choice.  If you have MLB.tv, I encourage you to go back and watch any of Fernandez's 8 starts this year because Jose Fernandez starts are must-watch television. Pinpoint control of a high-90s fastball and a hammer curve. He's animated. He's fun. He's 21. Atlanta fans certainly can remember his two dominant performances head-to-head against Alex Wood earlier this year. 

Jose Fernandez, I wish you the speediest and healthiest of recoveries. And one day, I hope you are throwing those laser fastballs and hammer curves in an Atlanta uniform. 

April Review

If April only had 28 days, I would be thrilled with the first full month of the season.  Unfortunately it does not, and the past two nights have significantly dampened my excitement about the amazing start to the season.
[UPDATE: It's possible the Marlins were stealing signs, which makes me feel a little better.]


The Braves sit in first place atop the NL East once again at 17-9, holding a two game lead other the Nationals and Mets.  Looking at the standings, two things jump out.  The Braves lead all of baseball in Runs Allowed (76 runs in 26 games - or 58 runs in the first 24!) with a 13-run lead over the second-place Athletics, but the Braves are also 28th in baseball in Runs Scored in front of only the woeful Padres and Astros. 

This really is the team that we expected in the preseason, turned up a degree.  The pitching and defense were the obvious strengths of the team, but what an impressive first-month display from both!  Led by Jason Heyward the outfield defense has been spectacular.  The infield defense has been less wonderful (Uggla has made SEVEN errors already and Gattis has made three), but Andrelton has been his useful brand of amazing.  Really the first month is all about the starting pitching.  Despite getting shellacked the past two nights, no one in the rotation has an ERA over 3.00.  The only ERAs above 3.00 on the whole staff belong to Vavarro (Tuesday's Marlins game is also to blame here), Schlosser, and Avilan.  The rotation has been incredibly impressive and went deep into almost every game (20 quality starts!).  Although the current rotation is likely to regress to more average pitchers (or already has started during this Miami series), the reinforcements (Minor and Floyd) are coming to counter the regression.  The bullpen was solid/great and actually performed to about their true talent level.  The new sit down/shut up/go home trio of Carpenter, Walden, and Kimbrel have been excellent.  No home runs allowed, FIPs all under 1.50, K/9 all north of 11, and all of that with BABIPs all above .300.  Ian Thomas has been a solid addition to the bullpen as well, and he is an excellent human interested piece as a non-drafted free agent who went from independent leagues to the majors.  Thomas has proven to be effective against both righties and lefties as a strong replacement while the Braves await the return of Jonny.  I love the addition of David Hale to the bullpen as a great swingman option.  I will write about this in another post analyzing bullpen utilization, but I think that is a great spot for Hale right now.  There is actually not a lot more to say about the pitching staff.

The offense deserves more discussion.  I wrote a review after the first week of the season, and not much has changed except Justin Upton has replaced Chris Johnson as the other good offensive player.  Andrelton has been solid.  Freeman has been amazing.  Johnson, Bossman, Heyward, Uggla, and Doumit have been tire fires.  Gattis has been an interesting case since he is still not getting on base at all (.289 OBP and only 3 walks in 80 PAs), but he has slugged a lot of home runs and posted a slugging percentage of .554 which mitigates his inability to get on base.  He has at least proven that he should remain a regular in the lineup (especially while Bethancourt struggles mightily in Gwinnett).  

Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman have been excellent in April.  Justin of course was his special brand of streaky, rollercoastering between the best hitter in baseball and an automatic out.  Freddie was his special brand of consistent awesomeness.  Nothing really more to say here.

Second base is a different scenario.  I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can pretend that Dan Uggla is a viable option.  I think Uggla is a good person (for example, read this interview on Fangraphs), but he has been terrible for the past two years.  Not just a disappoint when compared to his contract, but a below replacement level player.  Maybe he needs a change of scenery, but I'm not sure how much longer the Braves can continue to allow him to eat up at-bats and make miscues in the field.  La Stella appears ready.  (.330/.390/.352 in Gwinnett so far), and Phil Gosselin has emerged as another potential option.  I honestly think the Braves should waive Uggla and see if anyone is willing to pick up his contract (spoiler: they won't), and when that fails, just try and trade him for pennies on the dollar.  Fortunately he is not a clubhouse cancer, but every start that Dan Uggla gets lowers the Braves' chances to win that baseball game.

Centerfield is another problem area.  Bossman has been a below average hitter but actually an above average defender this year.  There is absolutely no power in his bat right now (.327 slugging), but otherwise he is basically the below-average hitter that the Braves should have known they were acquiring.  B.J. is also 5 for 6 in stolen base attempts which is another positive.  That said, I think Jordan Schafer remains a viable option to at least platoon with B.J.  Yes, Schafer has struggled in limited at-bats this year, but not really worse than B.J.  Bossman's triple slash against righties this year is .200/.250/.333 which is bad.  In limited at-bats, Upton has shown again that he has better discipline against lefties (6 walks and only 6 Ks), which again leads me to suggest that the Braves should consider a platoon or at least should consider allowing Jordan to start against some right-handed pitchers.  We saw the first sign of this being a possibility when Jordan was given the unenviable task of starting against the elite Jose Fernandez on Tuesday.  Another option may be Todd Cunningham who is getting playing well in Gwinnett.

Chris Johnson was just locked up to a three-year deal which is somewhat bothersome since he has struggled mightily in April.  Before the extension, I thought he was becoming another candidate to get replaced by La Stella / Gosselin / Ramiro Pena.  I would like to see less flyballs and strikeouts and more walks from Johnson especially if he's not going to hit home runs, but he still boasts a great line drive rate and I think Johnson is a candidate to slightly improve going forward.

Finally Jason Heyward.  He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball, so he's staying in the starting lineup and will provide positive value no matter how terrible he hits.  He's a great baserunner (please please please stop sliding headfirst though).  But he just can't seem to hit anymore.  His power is gone.  Which would be fine if he was getting on base at a reasonable rate.  Leadoff hitters cannot have OBPs below 300.  The problem lies mostly against LHPs.  In 22 PAs against lefties, his triple slash is a ridiculous .095/.136/.143 including 10 Ks and only 1 walk.  Although he has always been worse against lefties, this is a new low.  The Braves cannot afford to bench Heyward and lose his defense, but perhaps a solution is to swap Andrelton and Heyward in the lineup against lefties.  This simple swap reduces the amount of plate appearances Heyward has against lefties and allows Andrelton to keep getting on base for Freddie and Justin.

Overall, April must be seen as a roaring success.  The Braves have the best defense in baseball and banked a lot of wins against division rivals.  The starting rotation became an asset when treading water was all that was asked of them.  In May, Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd return.  May will also be past the Super Two minor league deadline, which will allow the Braves to bring up La Stella without losing a year of team control (I know the Braves never really operate this way but it's something to bring up).  Hopefully a few minor switches and the warmer weather increase the run productivity of the offense as the pitching staff comes slightly back down to Earth.